In a college football weekend that featured many losses to ranked teams, some of the most impressive results were the close calls that went to the favorites on a nerve-wracking Saturday in Week 11. Indiana and Oregon faced vote deficits on the road but emerged victorious, maintaining their top-10 status and adding to what should have been a mostly quiet weekly adjustment for voters in the AP Top 25 poll.
But should it be like this?
Texas A&M also hit the road, but unlike Indiana and Oregon, the Aggies weren't far behind. In fact, they never followed the tail at all. Mike Elko's group came out of the week with an 8-0 record and handled things the way title contenders do – seizing control of the game early and never letting go. Every time Missouri found some spark, the Aggies responded, and now as we head into the final stretch of the regular season, it's worth wondering if Texas A&M deserves more consideration for the No. 1 spot.
Based on last week's voting, Ohio State held the top spot in the AP Top 25 with 55 first place votes and 1,633 total votes. Indiana finished second in first place votes with 11, but the 1,591 voting points were closer to number 1 than number 3, where Texas A&M registered with just one first place vote and 1,523.
The Buckeyes are unlikely to move out of first place, but on a weekend when Indiana faces firing interim coachit's worth wondering if Texas A&M has a case to move up in the rankings. At the very least, it seems clear that the Aggies will close the gap with the two teams at the top, and that instead of a debate for first place in the points standings, the debate for second place will be discussed heading into Week 12.
Bowl predictions: Texas Tech replaces BYU in College Football Playoff, Oregon avoids chaos
Brad Crawford
Further down the rankings, outside the top 10, we're predicting a bit of chaos, with Virginia, Louisville and Washington all suffering unexpected losses. Additionally, since this is the first AP ranking since the College Football Selection Committee released its Top 25 list, we'll be keeping an eye on the cat-and-mouse game between voters and the committee. The selection committee made some decisions — like ranking Pitt and Iowa or putting Texas ahead of Oklahoma — that AP voters didn't agree with, and now we'll see if there's a reaction.
Here's what we predict the new AP Top 25 poll will look like on Sunday after the Week 11 college football results:
1. Ohio State (last week – 1): No change at the top of the order for the Buckeyes, who got a tremendous day from Jeremiah Smith (10 catches, 137 yards, one touchdown) as the highlight of a 24-point road win over Purdue. Next up for Ohio State is a two-game homestand against UCLA and Rutgers before the regular-season finale against rival Michigan in Ann Arbor.
2. Indiana (2): The Hoosiers may have looked more human when they were nearly upset on the road at Penn State, but the team also looks heroic after Fernando Mendoza's Heisman moment with the winning touchdown from Omar Cooper, who himself has an argument for catch of the year. A few votes could lead to Indiana being replaced by Texas A&M, but we predict there won't be enough consensus to lead to a reranking.
3. Texas A&M (3): With a 21-point road win over ranked Missouri, there will be some momentum and a legitimate argument for Texas A&M to be the No. 1 team in the country. The Aggies are now 9-0 and have a win over Notre Dame to go along with six SEC wins, adding strength to the case for some movement up the rankings. The problem is displacing the No. 1 or No. 2 team after a winning weekend. The Aggies will, of course, close the voting deficit, but we predict that this will not be enough to change the leadership.
4. Alabama (4): No major changes in rankings Alabama after an inferior win over LSU. The Crimson Tide are 8-1 on the year and 6-0 in SEC play, but the road to Atlanta includes some tough spots, including a showdown with Oklahoma next week and a late-season Iron Bowl at Auburn.
5. Georgia (5): There are head-to-head results that put Georgia in a pretty special place in the rankings, but it's hard not to see the stock price rising after a 20-point road win at Mississippi State. Kirby Smart's team caught the upset Bulldogs between games in Florida and Texas, but showed up in Starkville with hammers ready to impose their will.
6. Oregon (6): Beating Iowa at its own game would remain the cornerstone of Oregon's 2025 campaign as the Ducks had to rally around a handful of key offensive players on the roster and find ways to win in the rain at Kinnick Stadium. Escaping Iowa City with a win is a win that allows Oregon to achieve all of its overall goals, but it won't move the needle in terms of shaking up the rankings given results elsewhere.
7. Ole Miss (7): Voters won't react too strongly one way or the other after a 49-0 win over The Citadel. Next up for the Rebels is a home finale against Florida next Saturday night, followed by a week off and then the Egg Bowl on Nov. 28 to close out the regular season.
8. Texas Tech (9): We're projecting a slight boost for the Red Raiders after an impressive win over a top-10 opponent. BYU's first loss of the season by 22 points. The Red Raiders could also sweep Ole Miss, but there was a big enough gap between the two teams in last week's voting to think a trade could be possible after a couple of wins.
9. Notre Dame (10): No major changes after Notre Dame beat Navy. The Fighting Irish have now won seven games in a row and continue to show little faltering form as the pressure grows with each passing week to win or fall out of the playoff picture.
10. Texas (13): The Longhorns were eliminated in Week 11 and will return to action next week at Georgia. As we mentioned earlier, our rating improvement forecast is one of the few times AP voters can monitor the committee's actions. Texas and Oklahoma were separated by just 15 votes last week, and with both tied at 7-2 and the CFP committee putting the Longhorns ahead, we predict AP voters will follow suit.
11.28 (11): The Sooners were eliminated in Week 11 and will return to action at Alabama next Saturday.
12. Vanderbilt (15): Trailing by double digits at home, Vanderbilt turned to Diego Pavia to help keep the Commodores' postseason hopes alive, and he delivered. Pavia finished with 377 yards passing, 112 yards rushing and four total touchdowns in a 45–38 overtime win over Auburn, helping Vanderbilt improve to 8–2 on the season.
13. Georgia Tech (16): The Yellow Jackets were eliminated in Week 11 and will return to action next week at Boston College.
14. BYAU (8): It's easy to predict BYU's fall after the loss because while the Cougars may have been underrated as an undefeated team outside the top five, they have a key head-to-head win over another top 20 team in Utah. Perhaps respect for Texas Tech and a loss in quality will leave BYU in 12th place, but for now we think it's an easy slide to a spot above the Utes for most voters.
15. Utah (17): The Utes were eliminated in Week 11 and will return to action next week at Baylor.
16. Miami (18): A slow start against Syracuse seemed to spell doom for a Hurricanes team that needed a spark and may have found it with Carson Beck's touchdown run. Miami came out late and ultimately won by 28 points, maintaining their spot in the top 25.
17. USC (20): The Trojans took care of business Friday night against Northwestern, rallied after a slow start and pulled away for a 38-17 win. Now at 7-2 and with a win over Michigan, the Trojans have a path to further advance with games against Iowa and Oregon in the coming weeks.
18. Michigan (21): The Wolverines were eliminated in Week 11 and will return to action next week at Northwestern.
19. Tennessee (23): The Vols were eliminated in Week 11 and will return to action next week against New Mexico State.
20. Cincinnati (25): The Bearcats were eliminated in Week 11 and will return to action next week against Arizona.
21. Tulane (NR): The Green Wave bounced back from a stunning double-digit loss at UTSA with a strong performance to defeat Memphis on the road. Now 7-2 overall, Tulane has a tough resume: 2-1 against power conference opponents, a ranked win (at Memphis) and one tough loss. A win over the Tigers will be much more likely after winning the American title game, which is key to making the College Football Playoff. Will AP voters notice and replace G5 on their ballots? This is of course possible.
22. James Madison (NR): Look for the College Football Playoff race to get another contender when it comes to potential conference champions because JMU is now 8-1 overall and 6-0 in conference play after a 12-point road win over Marshall. If the Dukes win and claim the Sun Belt title, they will be a 12-1 team with their only loss coming to Louisville. Home games remain against Up State and Washington State, following the regular season finale at Coastal Carolina.
23. Pittsburgh (North Carolina): The Panthers were eliminated in Week 11 but finished 28th in last week's voting and entered the College Football Playoff rankings as one of the top 25 teams in the country, according to the selection committee. This could bring attention to Pitt that otherwise wouldn't be there this weekend, and when you're looking for teams with two losses, the Panthers have a compelling argument.
24. Houston (North Carolina): The Cougars were ranked in the top 25 two weeks ago before they suffered a stunning loss to West Virginia, so it's not too far off to see voters take the team as they look for options in the 20s. Houston doesn't have many big wins, going 8-2 after a Week 11 win at UCF, and one of those losses came to Texas Tech, which will move up the ballot.
25. San Diego State (NR): The Aztecs are currently active in Hawaii.
Predicted to fall: No. 12 Virginia, No. 14 Louisville, No. 19 Missouri, No. 22 Memphis, No. 24 Washington.
