There are only three games left in the CFL season and the division finals are upon us this weekend. Four teams remain in contention for another Gray Cup, and unlike other years, you can make a very compelling case for all four.
There's not much that separates these teams, but that doesn't mean we won't try to find an edge. So let's begin.
Montreal Alouettes at Hamilton Tiger-Cats – Saturday, November 8th at 3:00 pm EST.
The Alouettes head into the East final with some momentum after beating Winnipeg 42-33 last week in Montreal. Now they come to Hamilton to take on the Tigercats, who won the East by just two points.
Montreal lost in the regular season finale to Winnipeg, but this game meant nothing to them in terms of the standings. Barring that game, the Alouettes haven't lost a significant game since Sept. 6, when they lost to the Tiger Cats 26-9 at Percival Molson.
Now, before we say “Hamilton advantage,” it should be noted that James Morgan was Montreal's starting defenseman that day, and they were in the midst of an injury crisis at the most important position in the sport.
That doesn't mean we're just giving up on the game, though, as Greg Bell ran 20 times for 156 yards and a score to help lead Hamilton to the win. Montreal finished the season in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed, but this game was the last time they allowed a 100-yard rusher.
This is such a fun matchup because you can do this for most of the stats we look at. For every argument in favor of one side, you can come up with a completely reasonable counterpoint in favor of the other side.
Hamilton won both games against Montreal this year, but Davis Alexander did not play in either. Alexander last faced Hamilton in 2024, when the Ticats were still two weeks away from bringing in Chris Jones to fix their defense. As we saw this week, a lot can change very quickly in the Canadian Football League.
The only consistent matchup between these two players this year was Bo Levi Mitchell against the Montreal defense, and it will be important again this weekend. East Most Outstanding Player finalist George Reed played in both games against the Alouettes this year, averaging 219 passing yards. Montreal is one of two teams that haven't allowed Mitchell to record 300 yards passing this season.
The veteran QB led the league in passing yards while Montreal's defense allowed the fewest passing yards this season. It's an irresistible force meeting an immovable object that will likely decide who represents the East next week in the Gray Cup.
Another potential X-Factor is Alexander, who performed well last week against Winnipeg in the Eastern semi-finals. He threw for 384 yards and a touchdown in their wild 42-33 win. The young QB showed what level his talent can reach as Winnipeg mounted a strong comeback attempt in the second half of the game. Meanwhile, Hamilton ranked in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed this year.
In the running game, Stevie Scott III also gained 133 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries against Winnipeg last week. The Indiana RB had some big moments throughout the year, but this was by far his biggest game in the CFL. Hamilton's defense has been vulnerable on the floor this year, allowing 111 yards per game. Asking Scott to make back-to-back playoff appearances in his career is a big ask, but if he can keep Montreal from becoming one-dimensional, it will go a long way for them.
Other than these aspects, there is little that separates these two teams statistically. They both have positive turnover rates, they both have QBs who can create big plays, and they are two of the best defenders in the league at limiting big plays. Hamilton has home-field advantage, but no CFL team has won more road games this year than Montreal.
All signs point to a great performance that will undoubtedly create a worthy Gray Cup contender. At the end of the day, I believe Montreal's defense can get a couple more stops against Mitchell and the Ticats' offense.
PICK: Montreal -3, Stevie Scott III OVER 38.5 yards, Greg Bell OVER 61.5 yards
BC Lions at Saskatchewan Roughriders – Saturday, November 8, 6:30 pm EST.
The BC Lions are playing their best football at the right time as they head to Regina for the Western final against the Roughriders.
The Lions won six straight games to finish the regular season with home-field advantage in the Western semi-finals, where they pulled off a classic win over Calgary.
Meanwhile, Saskatchewan is trying to avoid the trap that many other top teams have fallen into before. The Riders haven't played a meaningful game since beating Toronto in Week 19 to sweep the West. They finished with the best record in the league, but a No. 1 seed in the CFL hasn't won the Gray Cup since Winnipeg in 2021. They haven't even made it to the Gray Cup in the last two seasons.
Whether Corey Mays and company can stay on top of their game over the last month remains to be seen, but they certainly achieved their goal of going into this game with a healthy lineup. In addition to Shane Ray, Ajou Ajou and KeeSean Johnson, Saskatchewan will have all of its best players at its disposal. The Riders, like most teams, have had injury problems all year, but appear to be healthy for their biggest games of the year.
The Riders enter this game as one of the deepest teams in the CFL. They rank second in both net offense and opponent net offense allowed. They were fourth in the league in passing yards and fourth in rushing yards. For the second year in a row, they were the best defense in the league. But this is where things get alarming for Rider Nation: Saskatchewan has given up the second-most passing yards in the league, with only Edmonton conceding more.
There is some noise in this as the Riders have won many of their games and this tends to lead to better attacks from your opponent. However, this is not the category you want to fight in when fighting Nathan Rourke. The Canadian QB was excellent all season, finishing second to Bo Levi Mitchell in the passing race.
The Lions QB finished the season with three straight games of over 330 yards passing, throwing eight touchdowns in those games compared to four INTs. He had two big games against the Riders this year, averaging 352.5 yards with six touchdowns and two INTs. The good news for the Green and White is that Saskatchewan won the first of two matches and they rested most of the second.
Meanwhile, the Lions' pass defense has been very strong this season. BC has given up the third-most passing yards in the league, but they really struggled last week against former Lion Vernon Adams Jr., giving up 334 yards and a pair of touchdowns. They only faced Trevor Harris for 1.5 games this year and seemed to have some trouble getting their footing in Saskatchewan. Harris threw for 395 yards and three touchdowns in their Week 7 win over BC and finished the season 10-of-11 against the Lions for 112 yards before being pulled to stay healthy.
Harris has been his usual solid self all season. He has thrown for over 340 yards in each of the last three games he has played from start to finish. While he relies heavily on timing and rhythm, I also believe the 39-year-old QB will benefit greatly from rest in the last couple of weeks.
As mentioned above, pass defense has been a strength for the Lions all season, but they have slipped on banana peels as of late. With the exception of the Week 21 game against Saskatchewan, BC has allowed more than 280 yards in four of its last six games. Lions fans will argue that they also threw nine interceptions during that time. If Harris needs to get back into game shape after the bye week, then the Lions could pounce. On the other hand, if Harris performs well, it could be a long day for the Lions defense.
One area where Saskatchewan could attack BC is on the floor, where the Lions have given up the third-most yards this year. AJ Ouellette added to that struggle in the two full games he played against them, averaging 105.5 yards per game with one rushing and one receiving touchdown. Ouellette has been a bright spot for Saskatchewan all season, finishing second in the league in rushing. He will be critical to balancing the Riders' offense and the Lions' defense, which can take advantage of any weaknesses you may have.
The nerdy part of me is wondering what happens in this game when you first fall. The Lions averaged 8.5 yards per play on first down this year. If they can hold onto the ball on second and short, it will force Saskatchewan to loosen up its passing attack a bit. Rourke also excels at making obvious passes, but this gives the Riders a much better chance if they can make the play somewhat predictable against one of the most energetic players in the CFL.
On the other hand, Saskatchewan had the worst first-down average of any playoff team. They've gotten a little more creative on first down as the year has gone on, but they'll have to avoid too many second-and-7 situations against Mathieu Betts and a Lions pass rush that has sacked most QBs in the league this year.
Just like the East final, the West champion must be crowned in a game that comes down to the decider. It's a situation Saskatchewan is familiar with, as nine of its 12 wins have been decided in the final three minutes this season. In the end, I expect the Riders' passing game to be too much for the Lions to overcome.
PICK: Saskatchewan -3.5, Trevor Harris UNDER 270.5 passing yards, AJ Ouellette OVER 84.5 passing yards.
