Greatest Year 2 quarterback leaps in NFL history: Where Drake Maye lands

Raise your hand if you had this on your bingo card: 2025 NFL MVP Drake Maye. Exactly. But it's not so crazy anymore. 

All he's done is pass tests in the last month. He “arrived” in Week 5 with an upset win in Buffalo in primetime where he made play-after-play outside the pocket in the second half. He torched the Browns No. 1 total defense in Week 8 (despite getting sacked five times by Myles Garrett) and delivered another strong performance vs. the Falcons No. 1 pass defense in Week 9. 

Heading into Week 10, Maye is second in NFL MVP odds at FanDuel (+400) behind favorite Josh Allen (+150) at the midway point of the season.

That all brings us to Sunday, when the Buccaneers host the Patriots on CBS. It's another opportunity for a statement win and for Maye to add to his MVP resume. 

He ranks top five in the NFL in completion rate (74.1%), pass yards (2,285), yards per attempt (9.0) and touchdown passes (17). He's just the fourth quarterback in NFL history to complete 70% of his passes with 9.0+ yards per attempt in his first nine games of the season (minimum 225 attempts), along with Joe Montana in 1989, Tom Brady in 2007 and Aaron Rodgers in 2011 — all of whom won MVP that year. So Maye is doing something only three of the top five or 10 quarterbacks of all-time have done. Wow. 

That puts him on a course to continue the rich tradition of Year 2 quarterback leaps that's featured pretty much one promising rookie blossoming into a franchise quarterback every year for the past decade:

• 2024-25 Drake Maye: average rookie season to MVP candidate in Year 2
• 2022-23 Brock Purdy: Jimmy Garoppolo's backup as a rookie to one play away from Super Bowl winner
• 2021-22 Trevor Lawrence: rookie bust under Urban Meyer to MVP finalist in Year 2
• 2020-21 Joe Burrow: devastating knee injury as a rookie to Super Bowl berth in Year 2
• 2018-19 Lamar Jackson: promising finish as a rookie to unanimous MVP in Year 2
• 2017-18 Patrick Mahomes: sat most of rookie year to historic 50-touchdown season in Year 2
• 2016-17 Jared Goff: abysmal 0-7 rookie record to star in Year 2 with Sean McVay
• 2016-17 Carson Wentz: average rookie year to MVP favorite in Year 2 before tearing ACL

Maye is making a leap in every sense of the word. He's fourth in EPA per dropback this season after ranking 22nd last season. He is among the most improved quarterbacks from Year 1 to Year 2 across the board. I examined the 89 quarterbacks in NFL history who were qualified passers in both their first and second years of their careers. Here's where his jumps rank:

• Second in yards per attempt improvement (+2.3) behind 2013 Nick Foles
• Sixth in passing yards per game improvement (+78.8) and best since 1994 Drew Bledsoe
• Sixth in win percentage improvement (+.528)
• Fourth in ANY/A+ improvement (+34)

ANY/A+ is a stat by Pro Football Reference that is similar to passer rating but is era-adjusted. For example, it levels the playing field between players in the 1970s (when compiling gaudy passing numbers was much harder) and the 2020s, when it has never been a better passing environment.

This is a historic breakout season we're witnessing. If it's anything like what we've seen in recent years, don't be shocked if Maye actually wins MVP or if he helps lead the Patriots to the Super Bowl. Four quarterbacks have won an MVP in Year 2 (Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson) and four quarterbacks have won a Super Bowl in Year 2 (Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson). Not many expected those players to break out and win MVPs and/or rings entering those seasons, so the sky is the limit for Maye.

Question: Where does Maye rank among the greatest Year 2 quarterback leaps ever at his current pace? My criteria here is quarterbacks who had breakout sophomore seasons after either playing sparingly as rookies (like Brady and Mahomes) or not playing that well (Peyton Manning). You won't find players on this list who were also great as rookies, not even quarterbacks who won Super Bowls in their second year, such as Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson. They had great second seasons, but they pretty much maintained their level of play from their rookie years. This is about taking leaps. The element of surprise is what's beautiful about sports, so let's celebrate it! So without further ado:

10. Drake Maye (2025)

There have been numerous Year 2 leaps throughout NFL history. It's a popular time for quarterbacks to break out. This list even leaves off big second seasons by Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Colin Kaepernick, Carson Wentz and Brock Purdy. You could argue “Mr. Irrelevant” belongs on this list, but he was omitted because he won his first seven starts as a rookie before losing in the 2022 NFC title game in Philadelphia after tearing his elbow in the first quarter. His second season was more of a continuation of his rookie success, more than a leap. That's both how competitive it is and how incredible Maye's season is trending to even be included. 

The most impressive transformation about Maye's 2025 season has been his deep ball. He leads the NFL in completion rate (65%) on throws of 15+ air yards after ranking last in 2024 (29%). We've never seen an improvement like this (+36%) in 20 years of tracking data. He leads the NFL in completions (27) and completion rate (64%) on tight-window throws this year, per NFL Pro insights. He's threading the needle and also making a lot of those plays under pressure and on the move. In other words, his leap doesn't seem fluky in the slightest and he should only continue to pad his numbers as the Patriots play the easiest schedule (.357 opponent win percentage) by any team in 50 years (1975 Vikings).

It's not just an individual turnaround either. The Patriots have a legit shot at becoming the second team in league history to go from a 13-loss to a 13-win season. The Colts did this from 1998 to 1999, during Peyton Manning's second year. 

Maye is also doing this without an all-world supporting cast. Will Campbell (first-round pick) and Stefon Diggs (free agent signing) have been nice additions and Kayshon Boutte has upside, but it's still an average at best supporting cast. You'll see a lot of names on this list (spoiler alert) who have (or had) hall of fame caliber teammates like Ja'Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. We can't predict if that will happen with any of Maye's teammates, but it doesn't seem like it's the case right now.

9. Nick Foles (2013)

Everyone will remember Nick Foles for going from third stringer to upsetting Tom Brady and Co. in the Super Bowl with the ‘Philly Special', but don't forget about his record-setting second season. The former second-round pick rode the bench behind Michael Vick in 2012 before starting 10 games in 2013 after Vick hurt his hamstring. All Foles did was set an NFL record with the best touchdown-to-interception ratio (27-2) in a season (Tom Brady broke this mark in 2016). He also led the NFL in yards per attempt (9.1), yards per completion (14.2) and passer rating (119.2) seemingly out of nowhere. He has the biggest Year 1 to Year 2 leaps ever in terms of yards per attempt (+2.7) and passer rating (+40.1). 

8. Jared Goff (2017)

The top two picks of the 2016 NFL Draft (Jared Goff and Carson Wentz) both took giant leaps in year two that would even make Neil Armstrong blush. Goff's leap gets the slight edge, though, based on Wentz getting hurt and what Goff did the year prior. He went 0-7 as a rookie under Jeff Fisher, the second-worst record by a rookie quarterback selected No. 1 overall ever, behind Troy Aikman's 0-11 season in 1989. Goff did a complete 180 in 2017 with rookie head coach Sean McVay, going 11-4 with 28 touchdowns to seven interceptions. He got rid of the ball quickly and thrived in McVay's creative, play-action heavy offense with MVP runner-up Todd Gurley and a young Cooper Kupp.

7. Joe Burrow (2021)

Joe Burrow was OK as a rookie in 2020, following his record-setting, national title year at LSU in 2019. But it ended with a devastating knee injury after 10 starts. Burrow came back healthy and thrived after the Bengals drafted his college teammate Ja'Marr Chase in the first round. Burrow was an efficiency king, much like Maye, becoming the youngest quarterback ever (25) to lead the NFL in both completion rate (70.4%) and yards per attempt (8.9). His “arrival” came in Weeks 16 and 17 when he combined for nearly 1,000 passing yards and eight touchdown passes in wins over the Ravens and Chiefs. He followed up a 14-point comeback win and game-winning drive vs. Patrick Mahomes and co. with an 18-point comeback vs. the Chiefs in the AFC title game. He was a play away from winning the Super Bowl that year, too, but Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp had other ideas. Stafford hit the triple crown winner with a game-winning touchdown in the final two minutes and Aaron Donald and Von Miller sealed the deal on defense. Still, it was a historic year, marking the birth of Burrow's NFL superstardom, which is more than enough to make this list.

6. Lamar Jackson (2019)

Lamar Jackson took over for Joe Flacco and started the final seven games of his rookie year in 2018. The electric audition was good enough to win Jackson the job going forward, but he was still a bit of a question mark after an ugly playoff performance vs. the Chargers, where he was 3-9 passing for 25 yards in the first three quarters of that loss. He completely turned the page in 2019 by leading the league in touchdown passes (36) while rushing for a QB record 1,206 yards in just 15 starts. He won the unanimous MVP in one of the best seasons in NFL history. He would be higher on this list, but he went one-and-done in the playoffs, and he was still productive as a rookie, so it lacked the shock factor of other leaps ahead of him.

5. Peyton Manning (1999)

Peyton Manning must have had a few people worried in 1998 when he threw an NFL rookie record 28 interceptions and the Colts went 3-13. What a difference a year makes. Manning finished as the MVP runner-up in 1999 and the Colts became the first team ever to go from a 13-loss to a 13-win year. His superstar supporting cast got into the act. Edgerrin James led the league in rushing as a rookie (1,553 yards) and Marvin Harrison led the NFL in receiving (1,663). Too bad Manning went one-and-done in the playoffs for the first of several times. 

4. Patrick Mahomes (2018)

You know this list is full of impressive breakouts when Patrick Mahomes is fourth. He started just one game as a rookie in 2017 (backed up Alex Smith) before producing a record-setting year in 2018. He became the third quarterback ever to throw 50 touchdown passes in a season, after Tom Brady (2007) and Peyton Manning (2013). He probably would have won a Super Bowl, too, if it weren't for that Brady guy. A coin flip and an offside (Dee Ford) in the 2018 AFC title game changed the course of NFL history, and also is one reason Mahomes isn't higher here.

3. Dan Marino (1984)

Marino actually lived up to high expectations as a first-round pick in 1983, going 7-2 with 20 touchdown passes and six picks. His second season was just so extraordinary that it proved to be a crazy leap even against a good rookie year. Marino had the first 5,000-yard passing season in 1984. The NFL's next one wouldn't come for another 24 years (Drew Brees in 2008). He threw 48 touchdown passes in '84, a record that would stand for two decades until Peyton Manning threw for 49 in 2004. The best part, tho was that the previous record was 36 touchdown passes by George Blanda (1961) and Y.A. Tittle (1963). Marino SHATTERED the best quarterback season of all-time and put up numbers that nobody else would sniff for decades. He became the youngest quarterback (23) to win an MVP and also the youngest to start a Super Bowl (a record he still holds today). The Dolphins lost that Super Bowl to the 49ers, but it doesn't diminish Marino's 1984 season as an all-time great.

2. Tom Brady (2001)

We're really splitting hairs between the top two names on this list, who authored the two best underdog stories in NFL history, but Tom Brady comes in at No. 2. The 199th overall pick of the 2000 NFL Draft completed one pass his entire rookie season but then rose to the occasion after Mo Lewis' hit on Drew Bledsoe and the rest is history. He led the Patriots to their first Super Bowl title and one of the biggest championship upsets ever vs. Kurt Warner and the Rams‘ ‘Greatest Show on Turf' offense. Brady is still the last quarterback to win a Super Bowl in the season of his playoff debut. 

His year two leap was also part of a historic team turnaround. This was the only time in Patriots history that they went from worst to first in the division (something they can do again in 2025). You know the Patriots are lucky when they have TWO quarterbacks on this list.

1. Kurt Warner (1999)

Kurt Warner's year two leap had it all. It was so amazing there was a movie made after it. ‘American Underdog'. He stocked grocery shelves after going undrafted in 1994, played for the Iowa Barnstormers of the Arena Football League in 1995 and the Amsterdam Admirals of NFL Europe in 1997 before making the 1998 Rams as a third stringer. His big break came in 1999 when Trent Green's preseason injury opened the door for one of the best stories in NFL history. The ‘Greatest Show on Turf' was born with Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce putting up video game numbers. The 1999 Rams became the first team to win a Super Bowl after going worst-to-first in their division (they were 4-12 in 1998). Even the Super Bowl ending (short by one yard) was straight out of a Hollywood script. Plus, Warner won NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP that year, a feat that would not be repeated until Patrick Mahomes did it 23 years later. 

Warner tops an incredible, incredible list of breakout seasons by young quarterbacks. If anything, it proves the NFL has been full of miracle seasons and unpredictable events in its 125-year history. So many that we should consider the possibility that Maye could climb even higher on this list and win his own MVP and Super Bowl.