Carney’s spending is as unsustainable as Justin Trudeau’s was

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Mark Carney's first budget is as volatile as Justin Trudeau's budgets. That is, if we stick to the same measure that Carney used to criticize Trudeau's budgets.

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The current Liberal Prime Minister likes to say that the former Liberal Prime Minister increased spending on the program too much, and now he is doing exactly that.

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The 2025-26 fiscal plan outlined in Tuesday's budget calls for a 7.2% increase in spending on government programs over last year. Given that the spending cuts are small, Carney was asked whether he had exaggerated his budget's capabilities.

“This shift from the 8% cost growth we've seen year over year, which is the average over the last decade, we're gradually moving to a sub-1% operating expense level,” Carney said.

In fact, over the next few years government's own figures show annual growth of 0.6% to 3%. The problem is that program spending has risen 7.2% this year, and experience will tell you that the government rarely meets its medium- to long-term goals, meaning spending is likely to be higher than forecast.

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Where are the cost cuts?

Consider that Carney promised to cut department spending by 7.5% this year and 15% overall by year three, but instead overall spending rose 7.2%. The budget document still promises 15% savings across all departments over the next three years, even as overall costs rise.

“To achieve savings targets of up to 15% over three years and optimize program delivery, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) will prioritize activities within its core mandate,” the department said in its budget document.

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“This includes reducing or eliminating activities and programs that are not core to the department’s mandate or that could be implemented more effectively through another department.”

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Every government should annually cut or phase out programs that are not part of its core mandate – this should be part of good and basic governance.

“The CRA will modernize its administrative approach to enable greater productivity and will wind down its business units that are no longer aligned with government priorities,” the Canada Revenue Agency said in a statement.

“This includes the digital services tax, the federal fuel levy and the Canadian carbon rebate for individuals and businesses.”

In essence, the canceled government programs will become their savings.

It's hard to take Carney's hype seriously

It's hard to take Carney's Liberals' hype about the savings coming in coming years seriously, given that they have kept spending increases this year at almost the same level as Trudeau's unsustainable spending increases. It's also hard to take Carney and his government seriously about their promises and claims about what will happen in the future when they continue to fail to live up to the hype they create.

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It's not just me or my colleagues in Toronto Sun who sees Carney: Overpromising and underperformingsee what Susan Delacour wrote in Toronto Star.

“Again, the implementation did not quite live up to the hype. Like many others, I scrutinized this budget for measures that would fundamentally change Canada or even the government, and was unsuccessful,” she wrote.

Headline from Andrew Coyne's column Globe and mail was less than impressed.

“That's it? Carney's first budget fell short when his government made so much noise,” it said.

In politics, the path to success is paved through underestimation and overestimation of results. Heck, even if expectations are met, voters will reward the politician.

However, Carney's team has a real problem: building hype about what they will do and then failing to deliver on the timing, as the Prime Minister might have said.

We saw this with the constant leaks from the PMO about the impending deal with Donald Trump, which, despite claim after claim, did not materialize. Now we see this in his budget and his ability to control expenses.

Canadians chose Carney based on his resume, his promise to take on the economy and cut a deal with Trump. If he fails to succeed on these fronts, they may soon have to look for new leadership.

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