Between the two gubernatorial elections, Virginia was supposed to be lopsided on Tuesday — and it was, with Democrat Abigail Spanberger trouncing Republican Winsome Earl-Sears by 15 points.
But in New Jersey it seemed like it would be a different story. The vote was competitive, and Republicans nominated battle-tested candidate Jack Ciattarelli, who nearly won the governorship four years ago. Recent momentum has also been on the GOP's side, with President Donald Trump trailing Kamala Harris by 6 points last year, a gigantic improvement from the 16-point loss he suffered in Jersey in 2020. And Democrats have privately shared dismay that their candidate, Mickey Sherrill, appears to be weakening in the spotlight.
At the very least, it will be a close race that Republicans can point to as evidence that the national political climate isn't that bad for them. There was talk of New Jersey moving from a blue bastion to swing state status. An absolute victory for Ciattarelli did not seem out of reach.
But all this was a mirage. When the polls closed, it was a rout, and Sherrill walked away with a 13-point victory, nearly matching Spanberger's lead in Virginia.
This is a troubling outcome for Republicans because two major components of Sherrill's victory have potential consequences that extend far beyond New Jersey.
Firstly, these are wealthy suburbs and residential areas. These are traditionally Republican areas populated by college-educated white-collar workers who find Trump very unpleasant. When he nearly won four years ago, Ciattarelli won back many of the suburban voters his party had lost during the Trump era. This time, when Trump returned to the White House, there was cross-pressure on them, but their verdict was decisive: they wanted to vote against Trump's party.
Consider Hunterdon, Morris and Somerset counties, which have the highest median income and the highest concentration of college-educated white residents in New Jersey. In each, Ciattarelli's lead was 12 to 14 points worse than his 2021 campaign. But his performance in these counties was in line with Trump's last year:
In fact, Ciattarelli did worse than Trump in Morris, although part of that could be due to the fact that it is Sherrill's home county.
What about Ciattarelli's home base in Somerset, where he was buried even worse than Trump? It demonstrates the motivation of anti-Trump suburbanites now that he is back in power and suggests further erosion of the Republican Party is possible – in New Jersey and in similar areas across the country.
Simply put, there were a lot of suburbanites who were comfortable with Ciattarelli when Trump was ex-president, but who look like they'll avoid anyone in the GOP column as long as he's president.
Another factor in Sherrill's victory is voters of color. It is with these voters—Latinos and Asian Americans in particular—that Trump made his greatest gains in 2024. These voters haven't supported Republicans in the past, but Trump's surprise gains have sparked hope among Republicans — and trepidation among Democrats — that a broader shift could be underway, not just in New Jersey but nationally.
So Ciattarelli became a test case: Could these Trump gains transfer to a non-Trump Republican running without Trump on the ballot?
The answer is a resounding no. In New Jersey municipalities where at least 60% of the population is Hispanic (and where results are currently available), all of Trump's gains in 2024 were erased Tuesday night:
Similar results can be seen in predominantly Asian-American areas in Middlesex County, where Trump also made notable gains last year.
If Ciattarelli had combined his 2021 suburban gains with Trump's 2024 inroads among voters of color, Ciattarelli would have won. And if he could retain even some of both, the race would at least be tight.
Obviously, this would give Republicans a good talking point after the election, but it would also be a genuine source of mid-term optimism for them. It would show that anti-Trump passions in the suburbs are cooling and that intraparty growth among nonwhite voters continues to grow rapidly.
But Ciattarelli got neither one nor the other. And as a result he was banned.
