Solar power plant in South Africa – support for clean energy will be discussed at COP30
EMMANUELLE CROSETE/AFP via Getty Images
This year's Conference of the Parties, which starts on November 10 in Belem, Brazil, is unlikely to result in a major new international agreement to address climate change; instead, the focus will be on figuring out the details of how existing agreements will work.
Before the summit, countries were required to submit updated emissions reduction commitments known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Only 67 of the 195 signatories to the Paris Agreement updated their plans by the end of October, with the European Union, which sets climate targets as a bloc, and India among the laggards. Meanwhile, Donald Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement effectively nullified the US agreement. goals presented in December 2024 under Joe Biden.
On a more positive note, China has pledged to cut net greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10 percent from peak levels by 2035. not enough to prevent global warming by 2°C.it is a sign of progress as the country's first absolute emissions reduction target. “This is a real leap forward from what we have seen in the past – we should take this as a positive development,” says Manuel Pulgar-VidalWorld leader in climate and energy WWF.
Adaptation to climate change
There are two important issues on the agenda that could be important both for slowing climate change and for preparing for it.
Brazil promotes Belém Mechanism of Action for a Just Transition, a new initiative to reimagine the world's transition to clean energy as a source of jobs and economic growth rather than economic pain. The idea is to support countries as they transform specific sectors, such as energy, mining or agriculture. It is expected to include commitments, goals and systems to clean up industries and direct funding to communities affected by the changes.
But given the reality of dramatic climate change, the COP's focus appears to be shifting toward adapting to climate change rather than stopping it. “COP 1 to 29 occurred in one climate reality, and now we are in a new one. The immediate consequence is that we must make people safer,” says Laurie Laybourn climate think tank Strategic Climate Risk Initiative.
Another initiative Global Adaptation Goal (GGA) is the first attempt to quantify and compare countries' vulnerability to climate change. It is expected to include around 100 indicators, such as flood risk and food security. The GGA must help the world decide which countries are a priority for funding, so this is a necessary step towards opening up funding to those facing the worst impacts.
But world leaders shouldn't get too caught up in adaptation at the expense of mitigation, says Laybourn. “There is a scenario where mitigation takes a backseat, but that is a dead end because less mitigation means more need for adaptation and we will be stuck in a doomed loop.”
Eliminating the financial gap
As rich countries fail to provide the financing needed to help developing economies adapt to and prevent climate change, Brazil is hoping to get financing back on track with the Baku-Belen Road Map. The goal is to increase global climate finance to $1.3 trillion per year by 2035.
Low-income countries are seeking grants from richer countries whose high emissions are slowly pushing them underwater or destroying their crops. Richer countries will try to find money through private investment, debt swaps, development bank financing or innovative financing initiatives such as Object “Rainforests Forever” (TFFF).
The TFFF is expected to be officially launched at COP30 to finance forest protection through private investment. Brazil and other countries guarantee the fund's initial investment so it can then borrow about $100 billion from large private investors at low interest rates. TFFF will then reinvest the borrowed money into sustainable projects with higher returns and pay the profits directly to countries that protect their forests.
Brazil has already invested first billion dollars, and the World Bank announced the foundation will be located here at the end of October. TFFF could become a new self-sustaining conservation model that would generate $4 billion a year in protection global deforestation.
With several ambitious announcements expected at COP, pressure is growing on the TFFF to succeed, but it will require countries to seriously back it by investing tens of billions among themselves.
“The launch of the TFFF is likely to be a highlight at a time of challenging international climate negotiations, and its success will send an important signal to others as we head into a severely climate-disrupted future,” says Simon Zadek at Swiss climate finance consultancy Morphosis.
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