COP30: Can Brazil summit get climate negotiations back on track?

Ten years later historic COP21 summit in Paris, World leaders are set to gather again for the latest UN climate conference. Nose the totemic goal of 1.5°C is no longer achievable and even the less ambitious goal of reducing temperatures by 2°C looks like a distant dream, and optimism is lacking.

Based on current country commitments United Nations Environment Program The world is estimated to be on track to warm by 2.3 to 2.5°C this century.. Climate scientists say the 30th UN Conference of the Parties in Belém, Brazil, is critical to changing the planet's warming trajectory as oceans, forests and polar ice sheets near tipping points. Concrete action is needed to move the world away from fossil fuels and to find the estimated $1.3 trillion a year that poorer countries need by 2030 to both slow climate change and adapt to its impacts.

“The climate debate is clearly under threat, not just from political decisions, but also from economic, financial and trade decisions,” says Manuel Pulgar-VidalWorld leader in climate and energy WWF. “This makes it one of the most important COPs since 2009 and as important as Paris, but in a very different way.”

In reality, negotiators' expectations are low. A bold multilateral agreement like the one reached in Paris is unthinkable in today's fractured political climate.

Last year's COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, ended in irritationwith richer countries committing to a fiscal package that was much smaller than poorer countries had hoped for. Faith in the COP process is now so low that growing debate whether the current model remains fit for purpose.

“Private funding isn’t showing up, countries want to renege on their fossil-free pledges, and no one is providing NDC. [national climate pledges]”, – speaks Claudio Angelo at a Brazilian climate NGO Climate Observatory. “Sentiment on climate action has gotten very bad.”

Disagreements caused by trade wars and geopolitical conflicts are spilling over into climate diplomacy, with US President Donald Trump leading a backlash against climate action. Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement and vetoed moves to curb fossil fuel use, while urging other countries to follow suit. 17 October International Maritime Organization delayed official approval of the plan cut emissions from shipping after Trump threatened sanctions against countries supporting the plan.

Slow economic growth, rising costs of living and anti-incumbency populism are making it even more difficult for leaders to implement climate-friendly policies. “2025 is just a bad year to save the world,” says Angelo.

Europe was expected to play a larger role in climate diplomacy after US support ended, but leaders there are divided as defense spending, trade disputes and energy costs take precedence.

Even in host country Brazil, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva: who advocated saving the rainforests – endorsed building new roads in the Amazon and oil exploration in the Amazon, with an eye toward next year's elections.

Brazil's decision to move the COP to Belém also caused great controversy. The first-ever Amazon COP is intended to be a reminder of the people and forests affected by climate change and a symbol of the bold vision needed to save the world. The Environment Ministry says COP30 will feature more indigenous people than any other.

However, most participants consider this move reckless. Limited hotel space has caused accommodation prices to soar, and NGOs, diplomats and businesses have had to find tents, shipping containers and hammocks to sleep in.

Given that the UN also limits accreditation, what should be an “implementation process” may instead become an “empty COP.”

“Organizations that had eight accreditations last year received only two this time,” says Carla Cardenas at the Rights and Resources Initiative, a coalition of nonprofit organizations working to secure land rights for Indigenous peoples. She says there are concerns that the participation of civil society groups that hold leaders to account will be limited, while the oil and gas lobby, with larger budgets, will remain unaffected.

On the eve of the summit, there were some signs of increasing positive dynamics. Concerns that too few leaders would attend to reach a quorum were allayed, with figures such as Britain's Keir Starmer making last-minute decisions to travel.

And as multilateralism crumbles, Brazil – with its reputation as a global bridge-builder – may be the ideal country to hold together the creaking process of climate diplomacy.

The president is taking a pragmatic approach to the negotiations, saying no sensational text will likely be announced this time. Instead of media-friendly headlines, Brazil wants to focus on implementing existing agreements.

While the world shouldn't expect much international success from Belém, there are still opportunities for cities, regions and companies that are increasingly taking action to combat climate change to step up action, he says. Thomas Hale at Oxford University. “Coalitions of the willing,” groups of states that come together to announce green initiatives, can still have a significant impact.

“Blockers like the US can stay on the sidelines, but that's not where the massive wave of action is happening, and that's not where the real CC action will be,” he says. “We will not see an international solution at the COP that will radically move us forward, but it could still provide the basis for many positive initiatives to emerge.”

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