Can farming fix its carbon black hole?

Johnny Balfour has a herd of 300 Aberdeen Angus and plans to expand his operations.

Cattle are known to be the most polluting and methane-emitting animals of all farm animals.

But Johnny's facility, located near Glenrothes in Fife, is considered carbon negative, meaning it removes more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than it emits.

Its grazing is efficient, and emissions from livestock farming are offset by the trees, soil and grass on the land.

Unusually, Johnny's herd lives outdoors year-round through a process called “mob grazing”, where the cattle are moved to a fresh patch of grass each day.

He insists that livestock farming should not be seen as an environmental problem and that more attention should be paid to farm management in general.

He said: “In our old system, cattle would spend quite a lot of time in the barn. While in the barn he ate some silage, barley and beans grown here.”

However, growing this food would require sprayers, fertilizers and “a lot of machinery.” They all have some carbon footprint but are now removed from the process.

He believes that reducing livestock numbers is too simplistic a way to combat emissions from agriculture.

“It’s not about the cow, it’s about the how. We need to manage livestock better,” he said.

Johnnie's Aberdeen Angus cows are smaller than some continental breeds which can have a greater impact on the land.

But its farming method demonstrates how the Scottish Government would like the land sector to operate by 2045.

Ministers have pledged to reach net zero – the point at which we no longer add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere – by that date.

This is achieved mainly by reducing emissions. Those that remain are then compensated for through a combination of natural and artificial processes.

After repeatedly missing its annual targets, the Scottish Government scrapped the measure last year in favor of five-year carbon budgets.

We expect to hear in the coming days what Scotland plans to do to play its part in limiting global warming.

However, ministers have already left a huge hole in how this can be achieved.

This summer, First Minister John Swinney promised farmers at the Royal Highland Show that they would not have to cut their livestock numbers.

It was a great crowd pleaser that day, but the policy has serious consequences.

This is contrary to the recommendations of the independent Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which proposed reducing livestock numbers by 26% by 2035.

His report Scotland's carbon budgetsuggests that annual emissions from agriculture should fall from 7.6 million tons in 2025 to 5.1 million by 2035.

Measures proposed to reduce emissions include decarbonizing machinery such as tractors and reducing the use of fertilizers.

The CCC report said 48% of these 2.5 million tonnes of emissions reductions would come from reducing livestock numbers.

That would leave a deficit of about 1.2 million tons of planet-warming carbon dioxide by 2035.

Livestock numbers are declining and are expected to continue to decline, but not at the rate needed to achieve CCC goals.

This is only one route to achieving net-zero emissions by 2045 and the Scottish Government does not have to follow the CCC recommendations.

Planting more trees is one way to offset emissions.

The CCC's proposed path to net zero involves increasing forest cover from 19% of land currently to 21% by 2035.

One of the committee's arguments for reducing livestock numbers was to free up land for new forests.

The government will need to determine where additional trees can be planted.

However, tree planting has really stalled in recent years, with Scotland falling significantly behind its annual targets.

One nursery owner last year threatened to burn millions of saplings after nature restoration budgets allocated for tree planting were looted to fund local government pay rises.

There have been warnings that stopping the growth of the tree planting sector for the sake of a short-term financial solution would set the industry back years.

Christies of Fochabers went into administration in September.

Thus, expanding forests – or planting trees – will not be an easy task.

One alternative to tree planting that is not talked about much involves increasing the number of hedgerows in rural Scotland.

There are currently approximately 43,000 km of managed and unmanaged hedgerows. The CCC proposes adding another 5,000 km by 2035, followed by another 4,000 km in the next decade.

Denise Walton is a strong advocate of the benefits that hedges can bring to the land.

She has expanded her Berwickshire farm by 11km in recent years.

Holly, blackthorn, hazel and other native species provide corridors for wildlife and also absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as they grow.

“In the canopy, at the top, you have this wonderful foliage, and then below the ground – which we can't see – you have this really impressive, complex web of root mass that, working with the soil, really sequesters the carbon,” she said.

But when it comes to the amount of carbon hedges can sequester, the numbers are small.

A 2022 University of Leeds study found that a 40% increase in hedgerows would offset just 2.8% of England's agricultural emissions.

Combined with agroforestry, where livestock are kept in fields where trees are planted, the Committee on Climate Change concludes that the total offset potential in Scotland is 200,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide.

This is far less than the 1.2 million tonnes deficit that Scottish ministers have created for themselves.

What other options does the government have?

In the short term, areas outside agriculture and land use could be looked at to accelerate emissions reductions.

Accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles could help.

Inland transport is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland, accounting for almost 29%. Agriculture ranks third with just under 19%.

It is currently expected that by 2035, 60% of cars on Scotland's roads will be electric.

However, most of the levers to achieve this goal lie in the hands of the UK government, so a faster transition in Scotland alone seems unlikely.

More thoughtful removals will also help fill this gap. This would require mechanically sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and burying it underground.

This technology is in its infancy and is really intended to offset areas such as aviation where reducing emissions is difficult.

Ministers have put themselves in a difficult position, but targets to cut planet-warming emissions are legally binding and they need to set out how they will achieve them.

The Climate Change Committee has previously criticized the plans, which are unclear in policy and lack detail.

So the government's plan will need to be very specific about what needs to be achieved and how.