Key events
Gauff got off to an extremely successful start. in his career, winning two Grand Slams on two different surfaces at the age of 21. But her serve—especially her second serve—holds her back. The world number three made three double faults in a row against her compatriot Pegula in her opening match and has spent the season struggling with her form. Here is Tumaini Caraiol's verdict:
She has many assets on the site. Her defensive skills and athleticism are unparalleled, her two-handed backhand is superb, and her intelligence on the court is complemented by her well-rounded game. While her forehand may be inconsistent, all evidence suggests that the quality of her second serve will likely determine how far she can go in her career. Gauff leads the tournament in return success, winning 46.8% of her return games this year, as well as scoring a respectable 68.6% of first serve points, which ranks her 12th in the top 50.
The problems start from the second serve. Gauff is the sixth-worst player in the top 50 for second serve points scored this year. However, excluding double faults, she won the second most second serve points on tour. If she can reduce the number of double faults, her results will improve significantly.
Read the full analysis below, including how the hiring of tennis biomechanics expert Gavin McMillan helped the American.
Preamble
For Coco Gauff, the current champion, and Jasmine Paolini from the Stefanie Graf group in WTA Final. Both players lost their opening matches and need a win today if they are to have a chance of reaching the semi-finals. The latter two played each other in China during the semi-finals of the Wuhan Open. Gauff beat Paolini before winning the title, her third WTA 1000 singles title. But their personal record is 3-3, and before Wuhan Paolini won his last three matches, including in Cincinnati.
Later, Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka will meet, having beaten Gauff and Paolini, respectively. Their head-to-head matches are skewed more in Sabalenka's favor, with the world number one winning eight of 11 matches, including at the 2024 and 2025 US Opens. But the American can take some consolation from the fact that she defeated Sabalenka in Wuhan last month. Will she be able to repeat her feat in Riyadh?
Gauff vs Paolini is scheduled for 2pm GMT/9am EST, while Sabalenka vs Pegula is scheduled for 3:30pm GMT/10:30am EST. Join me and, as always, send me your thoughts, questions, and predictions. by email.
