Californians head to the polls Tuesday to vote on Democrats' attempt to block President Trump's agenda by increasing their party's size in Congress after the 2026 elections.
Proposition 50, a ballot measure to redraw state congressional districts, was drafted by Democrats after Trump called on Texas and other GOP-led states to redraw their congressional maps to favor members of their party, a move designed to keep the U.S. House of Representatives under Republican control during his final two years in office.
Proposition 50 is the only item on the ballot for Tuesday's special election. Supporters hope the ballot measure will turn into a referendum on Trump, who remains deeply unpopular in California, while opponents call Proposition 50 a backdoor power grab by Democrats.
For now, supporters of the proposal have the upper hand. They have significantly outperformed their rivals, and Proposition 50 is leading in the polls.
Tuesday marks elections across the country, with the most notable being the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, the New York City mayoral race and Proposition 50.
California voters have been inundated for weeks with television ads, mailers and social media posts about the important election, so much so that only 2% of likely voters are undecided, according to a recent UC Berkeley poll sponsored by The Times.
“The rule has always been: Look at the undecideds in the latest polls and assume the majority will vote no,” said Mark DiCamillo, director poll from the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley. “But this survey shows that there are very few.”
Polls open Tuesday at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m., although any voter in line at that time is eligible to vote. The state allows same day voter registration on Election Day, allowing Californians to cast conditional ballots that will be counted if their eligibility is verified.
Californians have been voting for weeks. Registered voters received mail-in ballots about a month ago, and early voting centers recently opened across the state.
Nearly 6.7 million Californians As of Monday, 29% of the state's 23 million registered voters had cast ballots, according to a vote tracker maintained by Democratic redistricting expert Paul Mitchell. drew the proposed areas on the ballot. Democrats are leading Republicans, although GOP voters are expected to be more likely to vote in person on Tuesday.
The gap in early voting has alarmed GOP leaders and strategists.
“In California, we already know they've given up,” said Steve Bannon, who served as Trump's chief strategist for months during his first term. said on his podcast on the weekend. “Huntington Beach, California… it's full MAGA, one of the most important parts of Southern California, but we're going to lose by, I don't know, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 points on the massive Proposition 50 redistricting.”
Congressional districts are traditionally drawn every ten years by the US Census. In California, boundaries are determined by an independent commission created by voters in 2010.
But after Trump called on Texas Republicans to redraw the boundaries of their House of Representatives to increase the number of GOP members in Congress, Gov. Gavin Newsom and other California Democrats responded by proposing new districts that could add five Democrats to the state's 52-member delegation.
The high-stakes election has attracted tens of millions of dollars and a carousel of prominent politicians, including former President Obama in support and former Governor of California Arnold Schwarzenegger in opposition that were featured in ballot ads, including those that aired during the World Series won by the Dodgers.
Democrats, who have previously advocated for independent redistricting to remove partisan politics from the process, argue they need to suspend that political ideal to prevent the president from advancing his agenda during his final two years in the White House.
Citing public opposition to immigration raids that began in Los Angeles in June, the deployment of the military in American cities, and cuts to nutrition assistance programs for low-income families and health care programs for the elderly and disabled, Democrats argue that winning control of Congress in next year's elections is critical to ending the president's agenda.
“Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and have unchecked power for two more years.” Obama speaks in commercial including footage of ICE raids. “With Proposition 50, you can stop Republicans. Proposition 50 returns our elections to a level playing field, preserves independent redistricting for the long term, and lets the people decide. Get your ballot back today.”
Republicans opposed to the effort countered that Proposition 50 is an insult to voters who voted to create an independent redistricting commission.
They want to “take us back. That's why it's important that you vote against Proposition 50,” Schwarzenegger says in an ad filmed when he spoke to students at the University of Southern California. “The Constitution does not begin with the words “We the Politicians.” It begins with the words “We the People.” … Democracy—we have to defend it, and we have to go and fight for it.”
More than $193 million. has been presented to committees supporting and opposing Proposition 50, making it one of the most expensive electoral measures in state history.
According to a recent survey, supply looks like it will be approved by voters. But even if the ballot measure wins, it is unclear whether the Democrats' potential gains will be California's congressional delegation will be enough to offset the number of Republicans elected due to gerrymandering in GOP-led states.
