One of the remarkable aspects of the current government shutdown is how little it has affected ordinary Americans. Unless you are a federal employee, furloughed, or, more likely, working without pay, the partial government shutdown has likely had minimal effect.
But the situation seems to be changing. Federal subsidies that help 42 million low-income people buy food were set to run out today. But rulings by two federal judges Friday call on the Trump administration to use national emergency money to continue funding the program this month. This will only delay the spread of the economic shutdown.
In a couple of weeks, about 1.3 million active-duty troops may not get paid. And staffing issues that are already causing delays and temporary airport closures could spell “disaster” during the busiest travel days leading up to Thanksgiving, Vice President J.D. Vance. warned on Thursday. These developments alone could change the dynamics of the lockdown and increase political pressure to end it.
Why did we write this
The workarounds have protected most Americans from the effects of the government shutdown, but the program breaks could soon test public patience and political will.
Failure to fund military salaries could have particularly acute political consequences, says Wendy Edelbergsenior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the Congressional Budget Office. “There’s just a particularly egregious situation where people are putting their lives on the line defending the United States and not getting paid.”
The first policy test for Congress, set to begin today, involves the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as food stamps.
With Republicans and Democrats at odds over funding the government, the Trump administration said ahead of Friday's court rulings that there was no more money for SNAP. Operated by states but funded by the federal government, it helps low-income people—about one in eight Americans—feed their families.
Today's shutdown, if it happens, will not affect all states at once, as some have found temporary workarounds. States from New Mexico to Virginia have pledged replace federal funding with government money that will last recipients from several days to a month. Other states are directing funds to food banks in hopes they can help fill food shortages. This is no easy task as food banks are already struggling due to additional demand from federal workers who are no longer on the payroll.
Striving for military salaries
The Trump administration has made some of its own changes to military pay. On October 15, he disconnected from unused military research and development funds provide full wages. On Friday, the administration said it was using combination of legislative and defense funds And $130 million donation from one of President Donald Trump's friends to pay wages. Critics point out that the anonymous donation, which poses legal, political and national security problems, covers just $100 per service member.
Historically, both Democrats and Republicans have used suspensions because they can get their points across with little political cost. This is possible because shutdowns are not universal in scope. High-profile and “essential” government operations such as the Postal Service and Air Traffic Control must continue without paying workers. Under Trump administrationAbout half of the roughly 2 million federal workers have been deemed essential.
“Social Security checks are paid and Medicare bills are paid,” says Douglas Holtz-Eakin President of the American Action Forum, a center-right nonprofit economic and financial policy organization in Washington. “The things that affect the most Americans and cost the most money at stake continue to happen.”
Even the National Park Service, which employs many non-essential workers, is keeping some open 350 of 433 properties covering more than 85 million acres. This has led to drastic cuts in services and, in some cases, to the use of admissions revenue to continue paying staff.
But the longer the shutdown continues, the more difficult workarounds become and the more government programs run out of money.
In some states, the shutdown in Washington has jeopardized and delayed a federally funded program that helps low-income families pay for heating bills. A Minnesota group The administration of the Energy Assistance Program for Low-Income Homes delayed its opening just as cooler temperatures began to set in. One local agency in Massachusetts has had to stop administering its LIHEAP program altogether, while states like Connecticut are using leftover funds from last year to keep things running for some time.
Another blow to some households will begin today when people begin choosing health insurance plans for 2026. Expanded subsidies are ending for about 22 million Americans who buy insurance through government exchanges. Average Affordable Care Act premiums are expected to more than doubledAccording to KFF, a health policy research group.
These subsidies are at the heart of the impasse that led to the shutdown of the economy. Democrats are refusing to vote on appropriations bills until Republicans agree to extend those subsidies. Republicans want to discuss them after Democrats agree to end the shutdown.
Who will shout “uncle” first?
The shutdown will end when one party or another decides that the polls show the shutdown harms it disproportionately, Mr. Holtz-Eakin says. That's unlikely to happen before Nov. 4, when voters in New Jersey and Virginia elect a governor and state representatives, he adds.
While shutdowns rarely have a long-term impact on the national economy, as spending delays in one quarter are often offset in the next, in some regions the local impact could be more severe.
“The end of the season wasn't what we had hoped,” says Ian Blair, co-owner of Kayak Lake Mead, a tour company in White Hills, Ariz., that opens at the base of the Hoover Dam, a national historic landmark. Nearby Lake Mead National Recreation Area remains open but has significantly reduced services to accommodate the continued influx of visitors. “It wasn't the worst thing, but it certainly fell short of expectations for the rest of the year,” Mr Blair says.
The National Parks Conservation Association estimates that communities that serve as gateways to parks risk losing $80 million a day from visitors spending on everything from restaurant meals to equipment rentals. In 2024, U.S. park visitors spent about $29 billion in “transition regions,” leading to economic growth of about $56 billion, according to the National Park Service. report.
In Spruce Pine, N.C., surviving last year's floods caused by Hurricane Helen was tough enough, said Robert Thomason, owner of the gem store Rocks and Things. But concerns about the closures appear to have slowed business on the Blue Ridge Parkway, one of the country's most popular park attractions, he said. The parkway, part of the park service, connects Shenandoah National Park with the Great Smoky Mountains National Park and serves many communities.
“The leaves are very visible right now and we are seeing some leaf lovers, but this is our last hope for customers for the rest of the year,” he adds. “You could say we're running out of air.”
As the shutdown drags on, even minor delays are starting to wear on those affected by them, says Ms. Edelberg of Brookings. Due to the closure, the Small Business Administration is not approving any new loans. The two-week delay is annoying; a six-week delay can feel very different, she adds. The same goes for those applying for a mortgage insured by the Federal Housing Administration, which also does not accept new applications.
Then there are the federal employees themselves, some of whom are facing the loss of a third of their pay. “Two salaries seems shocking,” says Ms. Edelberg of Brookings. “Three salaries and I think it will be a financial disaster.”
And that's causing many top government officials to seek jobs in the private sector and foreign investors to reconsider investing in the U.S., she adds. Such costs are difficult to determine, but can have a long-term impact.
