Pakistan and Afghanistan agree to continue ceasefire : NPR

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — After five days of intermittent talks in Istanbul to resolve fighting that erupted in the first half of October, Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to continue a ceasefire they reached earlier this month, Turkey's Foreign Ministry said. announced Thursday.

The ministry said in a statement that the next round of talks would take place on November 6: “All parties agreed to establish a monitoring and verification mechanism that will ensure that peace is maintained and that the offending party will be punished.”

The ceasefire was reached after more than a week of cross-border firefights and targeted strikes inside Afghanistan that killed dozens of people on both sides, including civilians. The agreement puts a pause on the most intense fighting between the two countries in years.

Trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan has come to a standstill as major border crossings remain closed. Analysts warn that the deep-rooted conflict could flare up again and destabilize the region. Here's what you need to know.

What's at stake?

A major issue in relations between the neighboring countries is rising militancy in Pakistan's mountainous border regions, where the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, also known as the Pakistan Taliban, has stepped up attacks since the Taliban took over Afghanistan in 2021 following the withdrawal of US troops. The TTP is closely linked to the Afghan Taliban, and Pakistan accuses Afghan Taliban leaders of giving them a base and failing to rein them in when they stage deadly attacks in Pakistan – all of which the Afghan Taliban denies.

Each country blamed the other for the breakdown of talks earlier this week. In a post on X, Pakistani Information Minister Ataullah Tarar said The Afghan Taliban “have always remained indifferent to Pakistan's losses…Pakistan's patience has run out.” Afghan state broadcaster RTA accused Pakistan of making “irrational demands.”

Pakistan's increasingly bold military moves inside Afghanistan reflect its hardening stance against cross-border militant groups, said Muhammad Amir Rana, director of the Pakistan Institute of Peace Research, an independent think tank in Islamabad. “This is a signal for [Afghan] The Taliban are saying that if you don't change your attitude or policy of supporting the TTP and other terrorist organizations inside Pakistan, Pakistan may retaliate,” he says.

What sparked the fighting this month?

The conflict began after TTP militants ambushed A Pakistani Army convoy on October 8 that killed 11 soldiers near the Afghan border. TPP seeks to overthrow the Pakistani government and impose harsh Islamic rule, as the Taliban did in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan then blamed Pakistan for numerous strikes on its territory on October 9, including in its capital Kabul. Pakistan has neither officially confirmed nor denied the strikes. Two nights later, Afghan forces responded by shelling Pakistani border posts, leading to gun battles along the border. Cross-border fighting resumed a few days later before both sides agreed to an initial truce, which was later extended in Doha, Qatar, on October 19.

Before ceasefire talks began in Doha, Pakistan also carried out what security officials called targeted strikes against militants in Afghanistan's eastern Paktika province.

Analysts say talks with the Taliban over the TPP have yielded little for Pakistan so far. “Pakistan's attempts to talk to the Taliban and convince them to do something against the TTP have failed,” says Abdul Basit, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

Islamabad also tried to put pressure on the Taliban by deporting Afghan refugees.

Who are the Pakistani Taliban?

The TPP emerged in 2007 in response to Pakistan's military support for the US fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan. In recent years it has primarily targeted Pakistani security forces, but has also claimed responsibility for horrific attacks on civilians, including one in 2014 which killed more than 100 Pakistani schoolchildren. Its fighters have close ideological ties and combat experience with the Afghan Taliban.

The group has experienced a resurgence over the past four years after counter-terrorism campaigns significantly weakened it about a decade ago. Independent Conflict Monitor Finds TPP Lagging 600 attacks against Pakistani security forces in the last year alone. This is compared to the calculated 67 attacks One year before the Taliban took power in Afghanistan, according to the Pakistan Peace Research Institute.

Pakistan was closely linked to the Taliban since he cultivated the Afghan group in the 1990s. He has been accused of secretly supporting the Taliban during the US war in Afghanistan, which Islamabad denies.

How can this end?

President Trump said earlier this week on the sidelines of a regional summit in Malaysia that the conflict would be easy to resolve. “I heard that Pakistan and Afghanistan have started a conflict, but I will solve this problem very quickly,” he said.

In a post on X, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said on Thursday that Afghanistan, “like other neighboring countries, also desires positive relations with Pakistan and adheres to the principles of mutual respect, non-interference in internal affairs and not posing a threat to anyone.”

Earlier this year, Pakistan and Afghanistan held a trilateral meeting with China to discuss issues including counter-terrorism and trade, raising hopes of improved relations. But meanwhile, ties between Afghanistan and India, Pakistan's eastern neighbor and rival, are growing stronger.

Asif, Minister of Defense of Pakistan, said this week that “Kabul is a tool for Delhi.” Fighting in Pakistan and Afghanistan this month coincides with the Taliban's foreign minister. first official visit to India.

“We are where we are now not because of a lack of diplomacy or dialogue,” says Asfandyar Mir, senior fellow for South Asia at the Stimson Center in Washington, DC. The current ceasefire, he said, suggests that for now Pakistan has succeeded in cornering the Taliban through military escalation. But he expects the Taliban to continue to tacitly support the TTP, refusing Pakistan's requests to act against the group in Afghanistan.

He says the Afghan Taliban's support for the TTP is a constant source of regional instability that could lead to more attacks by the group in Pakistan and more intense Pakistani military activity inside Afghanistan.

Basit, from Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, is blunt about the matter: “Tensions at the border will reach new levels,” he warns. “If they were boiling, they will now boil.”