How Israel is winning the wars and losing the peace : NPR

TEL AVIV – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently stood next to President Trump in the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem and took stock of the past two years of war:

“Israel has won amazing victories over Hamas and the entire Iranian terrorist axis – Sinwar, Deif, Haniyeh, Nasrallah, Assad – they're all gone.”

This list names countries (Iran, Syria and Lebanon), groups (Hamas and Hezbollah) and individuals (Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif and Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas, Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah and Bashar al-Assad of Syria) that have been Israel's main enemies for decades.

At the same time, however, “Even though Netanyahu has won wars, he has been unable to achieve peace or peace of any kind,” he said. Paul Salemwhich is based in Lebanon with Middle East Institute. “He failed to translate his military victories into lasting political victories. He was burying Israel deeper into a hole.”

Israel has also come under harsh international criticism. This is largely due to the war in Gaza, which began with a Hamas attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, which Israeli authorities say killed 1,144 people. In its brutal response, the Israeli military has killed more than 68,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to Gaza health officials.

Israel faces charges of genocide at the International Court of Justice, and Netanyahu faces charges of war crimes at the International Criminal Court. Israel and Netanyahu deny both accusations.

As for Israel: “From a purely military point of view, the situation looks much better. From a foreign policy perspective, the situation could not have gotten as bad as it has,” Israel said. Chuck Freilichformer deputy national security adviser in Israel.

“I think the war had long-term consequences,” he added. “It will take a long time for Israel to regain its international status, say, 30 or 40 years ago.”

Back in the 1990s, Israel and the Palestinians spent the better part of a decade trying to negotiate an end to their conflict, with the international community supporting the effort.

Friction between Israel and the US

Today, criticism of Israel comes from all sides. Outrage in the Arab world. Mass protests in European cities and US university campuses.

However, Freilich says his biggest concern is the US-Israeli relationship, which he has seen from both sides. He was born and raised in the USA. He moved to Israel, where he became a security officer. He still lives in Israel, but teaches one semester each year in the US, currently at Georgetown University.

“To me, this is really the only existential threat that Israel faces, and that is the loss of American support,” he said. “Israel critically needs the United States on virtually every issue it faces.”

Israel used to enjoy solid bipartisan support in the US.

“Today there is an absolute collapse in support from Democrats, and we are seeing the beginning of a decline in support from Republicans,” he said.

Trump remains a staunch supporter of Israel, but he has drawn red lines. He is putting pressure on Israel to adhere to the ceasefire. He bluntly told Israel not to annex the West Bank, where half a million Jewish settlers live on land the Palestinians claim for a future state.

Salem says with these actions, Trump is demonstrating a willingness to confront Israel in a way that previous US presidents have not.

“He doesn't always seem to follow what Israel, the Israel lobby or the Israeli prime minister wants,” Salem said.

Before the Gaza war broke out in 2023, some young Arabs were not as passionate about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as previous generations, who had championed the Palestinian cause since the first major war in 1948.

The latest Gaza war has energized the younger generation, Salem said.

“This is a war that was broadcast live on TikTok, and this did not happen in 1948,” he said. “It stigmatized an entire generation.”

Relationships are great, but agreements remain in force

Recent hostilities have also been a stress test for Abraham Accords. These are the 2020 agreements, developed during Trump's first term, that established relations between Israel and four Muslim countries.

The war created tension, but the agreements remained, notes Erel Margalita prominent Israeli venture capitalist who began doing business in the Gulf countries after the agreements were signed.

“We have companies that deal [United Arab Emirates] banks, Bahrain banks, Saudi Arabian banks, insurance companies and the government,” he said.

Speaking more broadly about Israeli-Arab business ties, which have largely stalled in the last couple of years, he said: “It's not something that's talked about openly much. They don’t hide it, but they remain silent. I think a lot of it is coming back.”

However, improving Israel's international position will likely take time.

What the region needs, Margalit said, are Israeli and Arab political leaders who can move beyond the endless cycle of conflict.

“More political leadership is needed because the region can certainly use new initiatives as we emerge from this war,” he said.

Much may depend on what happens next in the Gaza Strip. If the ceasefire holds and reconstruction begins in the Gaza Strip, then Israel's isolation could begin to ease.

However, the ceasefire remains fragile. On Tuesday, Israel accused Hamas of shelling Israeli forces still in the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu ordered “forceful strikes” in response, and Palestinian officials reported air strikes on Gaza City late Tuesday.