Governmental disaster preparedness is not limited to crises that occur here on Earth. In fact, experts know that some of the most destructive and unpredictable events begin on surface of the sun. For several weeks now, emergency planners at the European Space Agency (ESA) in Darmstadt, Germany, have been conducting test launches to improve their response capabilities. catastrophic solar storm. And although today's digitally interconnected world means that such an event will inevitably destroy global systemsResearchers are working to ensure that humanity has as much time as possible to prepare to avoid the worst-case scenario.
Solar storms are semi-regular events in which the Sun spews giant plumes of charged dust and gas toward the planet at speeds of up to 2 million miles per hour. These waves can destroy the Earth's magnetosphere and create the majestic hues seen during aurora events. The consequences go far beyond the dazzling show in the night sky. Geomagnetic storms can easily knock out satellite constellations, power grids, communications systems, and essentially any other electronic or geospatial infrastructure.
Another event in Carrington
Although Severe solar storm makes headlines Last year's event, which took place 166 years ago, still remains the most powerful bombing in history. In August 1859, what is now known as Carrington event struck the Earth with enough cosmic force to cause aurora borealis as far south as Central America, as well as set early telegraph systems on fire. The Carrington Event was bad enough nearly two centuries ago, but such a powerful solar storm today could disrupt a society dependent on electronics, global positioning systems, and telecommunications.
One of the biggest challenges will be how the tens of thousands of satellites above us might react. ESA is currently preparing for a November 4 launch. Sentinel-1Dthe first of two orbital payloads designed to provide a constant stream of images of the Earth's surface. According to Sentinel-1D deputy spacecraft operations manager Thomas Ormston, there is currently little that experts can do to protect such a multimillion-dollar project.
“If such an event occurs, there will be no good solutions. The goal is to ensure the safety of the satellite and limit the damage as much as possible,” Ormston says the statement.
The developers of the training scenario did not hold back during its implementation. According to ESA, the workshop focused on a simulated X45-class flare, a Carrington event-level situation with X-ray and ultraviolet radiation that could disrupt radar, communications and GPS data approximately eight minutes after launch from the Sun.
Three waves of energy
Unfortunately, such an emergency would not involve a single burst of cosmic energy. In about 10 to 20 minutes, a second wave of high-energy particles, including protons, electrons and alpha particles, will hit Earth at nearly the speed of light, frying Sentinel-1D's onboard electronics and possibly causing irreversible damage. Lead modeller Gustavo Baldo Carvalho explained that while the first explosion would likely take observers by surprise, they knew what was coming.
“Once they regained their composure, they realized that the countdown had begun. There would be a coronal mass ejection in the next 10 to 18 hours, and they would have to prepare for it,” he said.
It is the third strike that will prove the most costly. This is the moment when a coronal mass ejection (CME) reaches Earth at a speed of about 1,242 mph and causes a giant geomagnetic storm. Similar to the Carrington event or last year's flares, observers on the ground will be able to see a colorful auroral show. But this will likely be a small compensation compared to the destruction of electrical grids, overvoltage of power lines and satellites falling from orbit.
“If such a storm occurs, the drag on the satellite could increase by 400 percent, with local peaks in atmospheric density,” explained ESA space weather modeling coordinator Jorge Amaya. “This not only affects collision risks, but also reduces the lifespan of satellites due to increased fuel consumption to compensate for orbital decline.”
Amaya added that while low-Earth orbit satellites may receive some degree of atmospheric protection, a Carrington-level situation “would not leave any spacecraft safe.”
He compared the ESA training scenario to planning for a pandemic.
“We will only feel its real impact on our society after this event, but we must be prepared and have a plan to respond at any time,” Amaya said.
Planning for the future
However, it is far from hopeless. The Sentinel-1D training provided the first chance to survive the horrific event in collaboration with ESA's Space Weather Office. Meanwhile, ESA continues work on its Distributed Space Weather Sensor System (D3S), which will deploy a new satellite array providing updated data sources. Meanwhile, the agency is preparing for Virgil's mission launch is scheduled for 2031. Once completed, “Virgil” will monitor dangerous solar phenomena from the “side” of the Sun. From this angle, the system can alert teams on Earth to solar events faster than ever before, giving engineers time to prepare vulnerable systems with a larger window than ever before.
“The scale and variety of impacts pushed us and our systems to the limit, but the team rose to the challenge and it taught us that if we can handle this, we can handle any real contingency,” Ormston said.
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