Drug crackdown or regime change

For two months, the US military has been building up forces of warships, fighter jets, bombers, marines, drones and surveillance planes in the Caribbean. It is the largest deployment there in decades.

B-52 long-range bombers conducted a “bombing attack demonstration” off the coast of Venezuela. Trump also authorized the deployment of the CIA to Venezuela as tensions escalated.

The US says dozens of people have been killed in strikes on small ships from Venezuela that it says are carrying “drugs” and “narco-terrorists”, without providing evidence or details about those on board.

The strikes have drawn condemnation in the region, with experts questioning their legality. The US is touting it as a war on drug trafficking, but all signs point to it being a campaign of intimidation aimed at removing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power.

“We are talking about regime change. They are probably not planning to invade, the hope is that it is a signal,” says Dr Christopher Sabatini, senior fellow on Latin America at the Chatham House think tank.

He argues that the military buildup is a show of force designed to “strike fear” into the hearts of the Venezuelan military and Maduro’s inner circle so that they will oppose him.

BBC Verify is monitoring publicly available tracking information on US ships and aircraft in the region, as well as satellite imagery and social media images, to try to build a picture of where Trump's forces are located.

The rollout has changed, so we monitor the region regularly for updates.

As of October 23, we have identified 10 U.S. warships in the region, including guided missile destroyers, amphibious assault ships, and at-sea refueling tankers.

It's no secret that the US administration, in particular Secretary of State Marco Rubio, would like to overthrow Maduro.

Earlier this year, he told Fox News that Maduro was a “terrible dictator” and when asked if he wanted Maduro gone, he added: “We're going to work on this policy.”

But even outspoken Maduro critics like Rubio have found it difficult to openly call for military-backed regime change, something the Venezuelan opposition has long called for.

Donald Trump opposed regime change in 2016, promising to “end the race to overthrow foreign regimes,” and more recently condemned participation in “forever wars.”

The US does not recognize Maduro as Venezuela's president after the last elections in 2024 were widely rejected by the international community and the opposition in Venezuela as neither free nor fair. The US embassy in Caracas was closed during Trump's first presidency in 2019.

The US has increased the reward for information leading to Maduro's arrest to $50 million, providing an incentive for those in his loyal inner circle to turn him in. But this did not lead to desertion.

Venezuelan law professor and senior fellow at the national security think tank CSIS José Ignacio Hernandez says $50 million is “nothing” for the Venezuelan elite.

In an oil-rich country like Venezuela, there is a lot of money to be made from corruption. Former Treasury chief Alejandro Andrade made $1 billion in bribes before he was convicted.

Many analysts agree that the Venezuelan military will play a key role in any regime change, but for it to move against Maduro and topple him, it will also likely need promises of immunity from prosecution.

Mr. Hernandez adds: “They'll think I'm somehow involved in criminal activity.”

Michael Albertus, a political science professor at the University of Chicago who publishes extensively on Latin America, isn't sure even a $500 million reward will convince Maduro's inner circle to hand him over.

“Authoritarian leaders are always suspicious of even their immediate circle and because of this they create mechanisms to control them and ensure loyalty,” he said.

Economic sanctions against Venezuela have worsened an already severe economic crisis but have failed to convince senior officials to oppose their president.

Donald Trump said it was a war on drug traffickers and said one ship the US struck on October 16 was “loaded mostly with fentanyl.”

But fentanyl is mostly produced in Mexico, not South America, and enters the United States through the southern border.

“This is not about drugs,” says Dr. Sabatini. “But he has adopted the language of the Venezuelan opposition that this is not just a dictatorship, this is a criminal regime.”

Since 2020, the US Department of Justice has accused President Maduro of running an organization involved in drug trafficking and narco-terrorism, which he denies. Trump said he authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela in part because of “drug flows” from Venezuela.

Venezuela does not produce large quantities of cocaine – it is mainly Colombia, Peru and Bolivia. There is a quantity of cocaine smuggled through Venezuela, which its own government says it is cracking down on.

The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration's 2025 report states that 84% of cocaine seized in the U.S. comes from Colombia, and the cocaine section mentions other countries but not Venezuela.

The first seven strikes took place in the Caribbean, which is not a major maritime route for drug trafficking compared to the Pacific Ocean, where subsequent strikes took place.

The US has not provided details of its evidence that Maduro heads a drug trafficking organization. Maduro has repeatedly denied the accusations and, for his part, accuses the United States of imperialism and worsening the country's economic crisis through sanctions.

There are known cases of his relatives being brought to justice.

In 2016, a New York federal court convicted two of his wife's nephews of conspiring to import cocaine into the United States. The case said they planned to use some of the money to finance his wife's political campaign. They were later released.

According to military analysts, intercepting drugs at sea does not require such large forces as the current American ones.

In addition to the US ships we tracked around Puerto Rico, where the US has a military base, satellite imagery also showed two vessels about 75 miles (123 km) east of Trinidad and Tobago.

One of them was the guided-missile cruiser USS Lake Erie.

The other was the MV Ocean Trader, according to Bradley Martin, a former U.S. Navy captain and now a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corp.

It is a converted cargo ship designed to support special forces missions while blending in with commercial traffic. It can accommodate drones, helicopters and small boats.

It is expected to be able to support a wide range of missions, including reconnaissance in preparation for strikes. However, Mr Martin stresses that its presence “does not necessarily mean that this type of activity is being carried out or planned”.

The US has strengthened its air presence in the region: BBC Verify has detected several US military aircraft in Puerto Rico.

Stu Ray, a senior analyst at McKenzie Intelligence Services, said a satellite image taken Oct. 17 showed F-35 fighter jets, possibly F-35Bs, on the runway.

These are high-tech stealth aircraft, prized for their short takeoffs and vertical landing capabilities.

On social media, a private jet pilot shared a video of an MQ-9 Reaper drone taken at Rafael Hernandez Airport in Puerto Rico.

They have been used by the US to conduct attacks and surveillance in Afghanistan, Syria, Libya and Mali.

Earlier in October, BBC Verify tracked three B-52 bombers as they flew across the Caribbean Sea and off the coast of Venezuela.

The US Air Force later confirmed that the aircraft were taking part in a “bomber attack demonstration”.

Aircraft tracking platforms also showed flights of B1 bombers and P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft.

Images on social media also show military helicopters operating off the coast of Trinidad and Tobago.

Some of them are Boeing MH-6M Little Birds, nicknamed “Killer Eggs”, used by US special forces.

When asked whether the CIA had the authority to destroy Maduro, Donald Trump dodged the question and said it would be “ridiculous” to answer.

He also said the US is “looking at the ground now,” referring to possible military operations on Venezuelan soil.

Many in Latin America view the CIA with deep suspicion due to its long history of covert interventions, attempts at regime change and support for past right-wing military dictatorships, especially in Chile and Brazil.

Ned Price, deputy U.S. representative to the United Nations and a former senior CIA analyst and senior State Department adviser, said CIA covert activities can take “many forms.”

“These could be information operations. These could be sabotage operations. This could be financing opposition parties. This could go as far as overthrowing the regime. There are many options between cheap and expensive options.”

This may include agents used to pursue suspected traffickers within Venezuela. By US definition, this may include Maduro himself.

Dr. Sabatini says that since Venezuela is not a major drug production center, there are no cocaine or fentanyl laboratories to be “taken out,” but there are airstrips or ports that the US could attack.

“If he wants to be aggressive, he can send a missile into a military barracks. There's pretty good intelligence that some parts of the military are involved in the cocaine trade.”

Or it could be a “crush and capture situation,” he notes, where they try to capture Maduro or some of his aides and bring them to justice in the United States.

The big question, he argues, is how long Trump is willing to keep so many American assets in the Caribbean.

If the main purpose of this military buildup is to threaten Maduro, it is unclear whether it will be enough to provoke defections.

It is difficult to say whether this amounts to a real attempt to overthrow the Maduro regime by force, Professor Albertus reflects.