Russia reacted with outrage Thursday after the United States imposed significant sanctions on two of its largest oil companies. These were the first economic sanctions applied to Moscow by President Donald Trump during his second term.
But experts say it remains to be seen to what extent the move could damage the Russian economy or Vladimir Putin's military machine as Trump looks to pressure Moscow to stop its attack on Ukraine.
Days after canceling a planned summit with Putin, citing a lack of progress in negotiations, Trump took the important step of effectively blacklisting Rosneft and Lukoil.
The announcement was welcomed by Kyiv and its European allies, which added a new round of sanctions to Moscow, angering Russian officials and state-controlled media.
Speaking to reporters in the Kremlin on Thursday, Putin called the sanctions an “unfriendly act” but quickly brushed off their possible consequences. “They are serious and will have some consequences, but they will not have a significant impact on the health of our economy,” he said.
Putin added that sanctions on Russian oil could lead to a “sharp rise” in gas prices around the world, adding: “If you take into account the domestic political calendar in the United States, it becomes clear how sensitive some processes will be. Those who advise the current administration to take such measures should ask themselves who they really serve.”
The Russian leader said he understood the US wanted to “cancel or postpone” the planned summit in Budapest, adding that “it would be a mistake for both me and the US president to approach this issue lightly and then walk away without the expected result.”
Hawkish ex-President Dmitry Medvedev, who is now deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, has been more outspoken in his criticism of the Trump administration. “The United States is our enemy, and their talkative “peacemaker” (referring to Trump) “is now completely on the path to war with Russia,” Medvedev wrote in a social media post.
Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova added at the briefing: “If the current US administration decides to follow the example of its predecessors, who tried to pressure or force Russia to abandon its national interests through illegal sanctions, the result will be exactly the same: a failure, both domestic political and harmful to global economic stability.”
The sanctions were seen in Russia as another slap from Trump, who at various times during his second term tried to put heavy pressure on both Putin and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.
“The US President has once again changed his tone,” writes Komsomolskaya Pravda, Putin’s favorite newspaper. Another newspaper, Moskovsky Komsomolets, compared the US president to “Kolobok,” the treacherous bun from Slavic folklore.
Trump has frequently expressed verbal dissatisfaction with Putin, accusing him of making positive diplomatic noises before bombing Ukrainian civilians again, but has so far avoided direct action.
This week he said a meeting with Putin would be a “waste of time” after Russia rejected a US demand for a ceasefire ahead of the talks.
“We canceled the meeting with President Putin; It didn’t seem right to me,” Trump said at a meeting of reporters at the White House. “It didn't feel like we were going to get to where we needed to get to. So I canceled it, but we'll do it in the future.”
The sanctions drew praise from Ukraine and its supporters.
“We were waiting for this. God willing, it will work. And this is very important,” Zelensky said in Brussels.
This is not the first time Russia has been punished in this way. Under President Joe Biden's administration, the United States, along with the European Union and other countries, has tried to crack down on Russia's banking and energy sectors in an attempt to isolate it from the global market.
This did cause Russia some pain, with its oil and gas revenues declining since the initial measure introduced in 2022. However, it managed to avoid the worst: its economic growth of 3.6% in 2024 will outpace even the 2.8% growth in the United States. It has done this by increasing sales to China and India and using its so-called “shadow fleet” of ships to transport off-the-books exports.
The ships are the target of new EU sanctions announced on Thursday that are also aimed at targeting Russian energy workers and the ability of its diplomats to move freely in Europe.
Zakharova, the Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, was optimistic about Russia's ability to withstand these steps, as it has done in the past.
According to her, these measures “will not cause any particular difficulties.” “Our country has developed a strong immunity to Western restrictions and will continue to steadily strengthen its economic and energy potential.”
Western analysts believe the picture is more nuanced.
“Russia has been extremely adept at avoiding the consequences of Western sanctions,” Brett Bruen, director of global engagement in the Obama White House and a career US diplomat, told NBC News.
Peter Harrell, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who served in the Biden administration, called the U.S. sanctions an “encouraging step.” Eddie Fishman, a senior fellow at Columbia University's Center for Global Energy Policy, agreed that “this is a big step.”
But he and others said the sanctions' success will depend on two things: how strictly the U.S. is willing and able to enforce them; and whether it will decide to take action against other countries that buy Russian energy, namely the two Asian giants that still support Moscow.
“It won't seriously deprive Putin of his war dollars unless we impose sanctions on the eight refineries that buy oil from China and India,” said Bill Browder, an American-born investment fund manager and a leading Putin critic.
“Trump doesn’t feel obligated any more than Biden didn’t touch the third rail,” Bruen said, using the “third rail” metaphor to describe Trump’s willingness to grapple with previously “untouchable” foreign policy issues.
“And so if he is willing to use secondary sanctions by taking more aggressive steps, such as expanding the range of Ukraine's use of Western weapons, all of this will increase the pressure on Putin.”
