As Tropical Storm Melissa creeps across the Caribbean Sea, it will strengthen into a hurricane and bring heavy rainfall that could cause severe flooding and landslides, putting lives and property at risk.
Parts of Hispaniola, Cuba and Jamaica could easily receive more than a foot of rain as Melissa strengthens into a hurricane with continuous rain for several days.
Tropical Storm Melissa is gaining strength over the Caribbean Sea and is forecast to develop into a powerful, slow-moving hurricane that will bring significant flooding and damaging winds to a region that has largely avoided any tropical activity so far this Atlantic hurricane season.
Parts of Haiti are under a hurricane watch and Jamaica is under a tropical storm watch. Melissa was drifting west-northwest at 2 mph with maximum winds of 50 mph as of Wednesday afternoon.
“The longer Melissa moves west, the greater the potential for impact on the U.S.,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno. “More of the route to the west could spare Hispaniola from the worst of the rain and flooding.”
“The chances of a direct hit to the US from Melissa are slim right now, but it is still possible if the tropical system reaches the western Caribbean,” added AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.
This image of Tropical Storm Melissa in the Caribbean was taken on Wednesday morning, October 22, 2025. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ satellite)
The United States will be concerned about the impacts on the Florida Peninsula, particularly in the lower peninsula and Keys. Strong westerly winds driven by the jet stream should prevent the storm from spreading into Texas, Louisiana and parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida next week.
“There is some wind shear (damaging breeze) that is holding back the intensity of Melissa right now and possibly in the future,” Ryno said. “However, water temperatures along Melissa's path in the Caribbean are above 80 degrees Fahrenheit.” The approximate minimum temperature for tropical development is 78-80 degrees Fahrenheit.
Da Silva compared the effect of wind shear on tropical storms to a stack of pancakes.
“You want a nicely stacked set of pancakes, not one that's slanted toward the edge,” DaSilva said. “Wind shear causes that stack or vertical structure of a tropical storm to lean to one side, and that's what happens to Melissa midweek because of the westerly wind shear. The storm's low center is on the western side of the thunderstorm mass, preventing rapid intensification at this point. time.”
Controlling breezes will sooner or later pick up a storm in the Caribbean and pull it north. Areas from Hispaniola to Cuba and Jamaica are the first to be hit by heavy rains, strong winds and rough seas.
Even though Puerto Rico may be far east of Melissa's center, the plume of tropical moisture could still bring heavy rain and the risk of flash floods and landslides, which are a major concern for the Greater Antilles further west.
The islands in the northern Caribbean that will be hit hardest by the storm will largely depend on how far west the storm moves before turning north.
The AccuWeather RealImpact™ scale for hurricanes in the Western Caribbean caused by Melissa is a four. In Puerto Rico, RealImpact is one of them.
This scale, developed by AccuWeather, takes into account much more than the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale, which only measures wind intensity. The RealImpact™ scale considers economic impacts, affected populations, and impacts from wind, storm surge, landslides and flooding.
The islands of Hispaniola and Cuba are mountainous, which reduces the intensity of Melissa, but also squeezes out excess moisture in the form of heavy rains. Slow movement and exposure to terrain can result in several feet of rain and life-threatening catastrophic flooding and landslides.
There is currently a wide area that could see 4-8 inches of rain, with 12-18 inches expected in Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica, where the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ is 30 inches.
Melissa can spend many days in the Caribbean. If the center manages to avoid landfall for any length of time, it is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane.
The storm's AccuWeather Local StormMax™ gust is currently 100 mph, depending on whether the storm's core remains off the coast of Jamaica. If Melissa heads towards the coast of Jamaica, the winds on land could be much stronger. AccuWeather meteorologists expect Melissa to become a major hurricane and could reach a Category 4 or 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale if the hurricane stays off land for any length of time over the western Caribbean.
High winds over many hours and days can cause damage to trees, poorly constructed buildings and power supplies in the region.
Cruise, fishing and beach vacation interests should take this into account, as conditions at sea and along the Caribbean coast could be stormy and dangerous for several days following the region's relatively calm summer and early fall.
If Melissa survives outside the Greater Antilles, how well she survives will determine the extent of the impact in the Bahamas and possibly South Florida. As in the Caribbean, the extent of the impact in these more northerly areas will depend on the storm's path and its ability to recover.
For areas further north along the US East Coast, there is some risk of impact even if the center remains offshore. In one scenario, a nontropical storm and front associated with a falling jet stream could combine to increase rain, wind and seas along the East Coast during the last few days of the month.
Even if these two features fail to interact directly and the tropical storm heads offshore, heavy rain, wind and rough seas could still be expected for some time along parts of the US East Coast in late October.
Do you want a new level of security and no advertising? Unlock enhanced hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ Our weather experts monitor and analyze severe weather risks around the clock to keep you and your family safe.
