Early voter turnout exceeded expectations in California's Nov. 4 special election to redraw the state's congressional districts, an effort by Democrats to counter Republican efforts to keep Congress under GOP control.
“We're seeing a pretty unusual number of early votes that have already been cast, people sending back their ballots,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a livestream with former President Obama on Wednesday.
More than 3.4 million mail ballots had been returned as of Wednesday, with Democratic votes outpacing those of Republicans and Californians registered as having no party preference, according to a ballot tracking system maintained by Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell. Mitchell is active in Democratic Party efforts and has drawn up proposed congressional districts for the Nov. 4 special vote.
About the same number of ballots have been returned so far in the race for the White House between then-Vice President Kamala Harris and then-former President Trump in 2024, which is notable for having higher turnout in the presidential election than in other years.
By this point, about a million more ballots had been returned in the failed effort to recall Newsom in 2021, but that was during the COVID pandemic.
Turnout is especially strong this year because Proposition 50 addresses the esoteric topic of redistricting. Congressional redistricting typically occurs once a decade after the U.S. Census to account for population shifts.
California's 52 congressional districts are currently drawn by a voter-approved independent commission, but Newsom and other California Democrats have decided to ask voters to allow a rare mid-decade partisan gerrymander to undo Trump's efforts in GOP-led states to increase his party's size in the House.
Obama, who has supported Proposition 50 and appeared in television ads supporting the effort, said Wednesday that the ballot measure would affect the entire country.
“The broader principle at stake is whether our democracy can be manipulated by those already in power to further entrench themselves,” Obama said. “Or, are we going to create a system that allows people to decide who represents them.”
About 51% of the ballots returned so far are from registered Democrats, 28% from registered Republicans and 21% from voters who did not express a party preference.
It is not known how these voters voted, but the Democratic advantage appears to favor supporters of Proposition 50, which must be passed by a simple majority to take effect. About 19.6 million ballots — roughly 85% of those mailed to California voters — remain outstanding, although not all are expected to be returned.
The current trend of ballot returns so far shows Democrats holding a slight advantage over Republicans relative to their share of the California electorate. According to the state's latest voter registration report, Democrats make up 45% of registered California voters, while Republicans make up 25% and voters with no party preference make up 23%. The remainder are made up of Californians belonging to other parties.
Mitchell added that another interesting fact is that mail-in ballots continue to arrive.
“Usually after the first wave there’s a lull — if you don’t mail your ballot in the first week, it’s going to sit on the counter for a while,” Mitchell said. But ballots keep coming in, perhaps helped by Saturday's “No Kings” protests, he said.
A spokesman for the Proposition 50 campaign said they don't take anything for granted.
“With millions of ballots still to be cast, we will continue to ensure every Californian understands what's involved and votes yes on November 4 to stop Trump's power grab,” spokeswoman Hannah Milgrom said.
Some Republican leaders have expressed concern that GOP early voting could be suppressed by Trump's past criticism of mail-in voting. inaccuracies in the voter guide sent to the state's 23 million voters and conspiracy theories About the design of voting envelopes.
“Although the ballot initiatives are nonpartisan, many Republicans are inclined to hold onto their ballots until in-person voting begins,” said Ellie Hockenbury, an adviser to the No on Proposition 50 – Stop the Sacramento Power Grab campaign committee. “As the next phase begins—with Election Day nearly two weeks away—we expect already strong turnout to continue to rise to defeat Proposition 50 and stop Gavin Newsom's partisan power grab.”
Amy Thoma, a spokeswoman for the other major group opposing the proposal, said data shows voters who have returned ballots so far are not representative of California's electorate.
“Special elections tend to be more partisan, older and white than general elections, and that's one of the reasons we're concerned about the speed at which politicians have pushed this,” she said.
