It all comes down to Game 7 of the American League Championship Series, with a trip to the World Series on the line.
Toronto Blue Jays moved towards victory over Seattle Mariners in a must-win Game 6 on Sunday night to keep their championship aspirations alive and reach the ALCS final on Monday, in which the winner will face Los Angeles Dodgers in “Autumn Classics”.
Will Toronto complete its comeback or will Seattle punch its ticket to its first World Series appearance? We asked our MLB experts to answer seven questions that will decide the fate of Game 7, plus an additional question looking at how the AL pennant winner will stack up against the defending champions.
1. How important will home field advantage be for Toronto in Game 7?
Jorge Castillo: It doesn't hurt. The Rogers Center crowd was electric throughout the regular season and into October. Players have repeatedly praised the atmosphere. But the Mariners won Games 1 and 2 in Toronto. The crowd was loud and it didn't matter.
Buster Olney: It might not mean anything; The Mariners know they can win in Toronto, as they did in Games 1 and 2. But I think getting an advantage will be important because if Seattle falls behind by two or three runs, the task of winning one final game at Rogers Center will be made difficult by the bonkers crowd.
2. The Mariners have been on their side all season. How important will Seattle's ability to continue to find a way in Game 7 be?
Jeff Passan: Vibration takes the team far from immediately. The Mariners are here because of their starting pitching and ability to hit home runs – and they need George Kirby to avoid another disastrous start and cooling the offense with strikeouts. In Game 3, Kirby got eight runs, half of which came on three home runs. Instead, he needs to take a win-or-go-home approach to his latest game, where he stifled Detroit over five innings in the division series.
Although Seattle beat the Blue Jays in the ALCS, its 28.1% strikeout rate isn't good, and Shane BieberAt the Toronto track he will rely heavily on spin, so this will play right into his wheelhouse. Both teams are exhausted and getting an early lead will go a long way in getting the Mariners' offense right.
Olney: After Game 6, the Mariners talked about how they had good energy and that giving back was part of their identity. But it's more important for Seattle to play a clean game, and that's Julio Rodriguez mentioned after Sunday's defeat. The Mariners made a lot of mistakes early in Game 6, with defensive errors from Rodriguez and Eugene Suarez and a big mistake JP Crawford. The Blue Jays are constantly putting the ball in play and putting pressure on the defense, and Seattle has to react better to survive.
3. Which team has the service advantage in game seven and why?
David Shenfield: Slight lead over the Blue Jays overall, largely based on how the pitching matchup ended in Game 3, with Bieber pitching well (six innings, four hits, two runs, eight strikeouts, 16 swinging) and Kirby not (four innings, eight runs, three home runs, nine swinging). The Mariners have a late game advantage with Andres Muñozwho will have two days rest after not pitching in Game 6; Blue Jays closer Jeff Hoffman threw 35 pitches on Sunday.
The Mariners do have several early relief options available at Brian Wu And Luis Castillo (who threw just 48 pitches in his Game 4 start), but Castillo has been terrible on the road and Wu is an unknown threat as he serves two days off from injury. Search Kevin Gausman be a bullpen option for the Blue Jays. Indeed, the Jays would probably like to use Bieber, Gausman, Louis Varland and Hoffman, and do not go deeper into their enclosure. However, if someone else gets into the game, the Mariners have a chance.
Castillo: The starting pitching advantage belongs to Toronto for reasons presented by David, but the unknown variable here is Brian Wu. The All-Star right-hander was Seattle's best player during the regular season, but a pectoral injury limited him to two innings in Game 5. If he can give the Mariners real, effective length, I think the overall advantage goes to Seattle with Andres Munoz also on a three-day rest. Wu is the best pitcher in this series when healthy. He could make a difference.
4. Which player MUST perform for Seattle to win?
Shenfield: Kirby. In six ALCS games Bryce Miller is the only Mariners starter to have a good game, and he was the worst player in the group during the regular season. Even with Miller's two solid efforts, the rotation has a 7.33 ERA in this series, allowing for a .310 batting average and a .993 OPS. Kirby doesn't need to go deep – nor is he expected to – but Seattle needs four or five strong innings from him.
Castillo: Since David went with Kirby, I'll go with Cal Raleigh. The AL MVP candidate was Seattle's best player all year, from the regular season through the playoffs, on both sides of the ball. So it was strange to see him have such a tough Game 6: 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, a GIDP and a throwing error that allowed Toronto to score on the final run. It's hard to imagine the Mariners winning Game 7 without Raleigh's contributions.
5. Which player MUST prove himself for Toronto to move on?
Pass: In the Blue Jays' six wins this postseason. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. is 15-for-26 with five home runs, 10 RBIs and one strikeout in 30 plate appearances. He is a litmus test for the man and a reminder that both Vlad Jr. and the Blue Jays are. A good start from Bieber would help a lot—Toronto's bullpen has been so disorganized this postseason that relying on any one pitcher for too long is a recipe for disaster—but with the endless rotation of pitchers expected in Game 7, the players with the ability to do the most will be on the offensive side of the ball. And in the ALCS, no one was better than Guerrero, who has just two goals in 47 appearances this postseason.
Olney: Bieber, because of all the uncertainty that the Toronto bullpen presents. It's unclear how much Hoffman will be able to provide after his performance in Game 6, and while Warland is trusted, he will also be back-to-back. Jays manager John Schneider spoke before Game 6 about possibly using Max Scherzer from the bullpen, or maybe Chris Bassittbut it is difficult to say exactly what he will get from any of them.
The Jays traded Bieber at the trade deadline in hopes that he could provide them with meaningful games, and it's hard to imagine a situation more important for a franchise looking to get a chance to go to the World Series for the first time in 32 years.
6. Make your throw. Which surprise player do you think could decide Game 7?
Shenfield: Ernie Clement became less surprising as the postseason approached as he hit .447. Notably, he and Guerrero only scored two goals in 10 playoff games. That sums up Toronto's advantage at the plate: These guys put the ball in play. Given that Guerrero may not see pitches closer than Manitoba in this game, the players behind him may have to do some damage – and Clement is one of those who will get RBI opportunities.
Pass: Crawford is hitting in the bottom third of the Mariners lineup and has only two hits in the ALCS. So why him? Well, first of all, he should, but beyond that, Crawford has put in solid performances every time – his 4.5 assists per game is the second-highest among regulars – and he has the lowest strikeout rate of any Seattle player in this series.
During the regular season, Crawford's high-leverage numbers were off the charts: .340/.476/.620. He craves moments that matter. And nothing in Mariners franchise history matters more than Game 7 with a chance to go to the World Series.
7. And Really Take your pick: which team will stand last in this ALCS?
Castillo: I've written it before and I'll write it again: I picked Seattle to win the World Series before the season even started, so I'm not going to deviate from that, even though the Blue Jays have become the better team since they lost the first two games of the series. Seattle battled back with a 6-4 victory.
Pass: The nature of the coin toss in postseason baseball is epitomized by the home team's record in winner-take-all games: 71-67. And considering how volatile this series has been, either team showing up would make a lot of sense. The idea that Kirby and Bieber are putting forward is a very realistic one that would turn this into a bullpen battle. However, with Andres Munoz able to work a few innings after two days of rest and Hoffman leaving the game for 35 innings, the advantage shifts slightly in Seattle's favor. The Mariners advance to their first World Series with a 3–2 record.
Bonus: What team do the Dodgers want next – or is Los Angeles just too good for it to matter?
Pass: Simply because Los Angeles will have home field advantage and a less arduous commute, the answer is Seattle. From a talent standpoint, the ALCS shows that the Blue Jays and Mariners are fairly evenly matched. The Blue Jays' lack of an effective left-handed pitcher against a Dodgers lineup with Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman And Max Muncy will work decisively in Los Angeles' favor.
Likewise, the Mariners have a hard time hitting high-octane fastballs. Their regular-season OPS against the Heaters at 97 mph was .639 (compared to Toronto's MLB-best .766), and while they have hit four home runs from such pitches in the postseason, they remain vulnerable. Ultimately, whoever advances will face a juggernaut that will be heavily supported, and rightfully so.
Olney: In conversations with some evaluators of other teams, there is near consensus that the Blue Jays represent the best challenge for Los Angeles because of the nature of their offense. They can put the ball in play more consistently and of course have Guerrero; with all due respect to all the future Hall of Famers on the Dodgers roster, Guerrero would be the most dangerous hitter in any series he currently played.
We'll see that in Game 7, when it seems highly likely that the Mariners will use just about every opportunity they have around him—an appropriate response when facing a guy who has more homers (six) than strikeouts (two) in the postseason.
