Are TDSB lotteries a failed experiment or a fairer system?

Jiang says the random selection of students has “radically” changed the programs, reducing the curriculum as children have unequal skill levels and weakening school spirit.

“This is deeply damaging to the student community,” says Jiang, who is also a TDSB student trustee.

Some students, parents and educators are calling for an end to the lottery, saying it has led to increased attrition rates, a failure to provide promised diversity and a decline in the quality of programs – in part because some parents are pushing their children into programs they are not truly interested in. However, others argue that it is fairer, giving all students an equal chance.

For many years, admission to these coveted high school programs was done locally and based on merit, including auditions, entrance exams, portfolios, and essays. But in 2022, trustees approved a policy for centralized student interest programs that allowed all students to apply.

When programs are oversubscribed, places are awarded by lotterywith priority given to underrepresented students – First Nations applicants; then 20 percent of seats for black, Hispanic and Middle Eastern students. And in math, science and technology programs, half the seats were reserved for girls. The goal was to make access more equitable and reduce the disadvantage for families who could pay for private lessons and tutoring.

Ayan's daughter Kaylee is a Grade 11 student at Etobicoke School of the Arts (ESA), part of the first cohort accepted in the September 2023 lottery. She supports random selection, but believes low-income families should also be given priority.

Her daughter is talented and “doing well” at a school that is “perfect for her.” But Kaylee doubts she would have been accepted under the old merit-based model because she couldn't afford to purchase art supplies to build a competitive portfolio. As a single mother, she often had to choose between putting food on the table or buying brushes and canvases.

That's why Kaylee supports the lottery system. She sees it as a way to give children like her daughter a fair chance, regardless of family income or access to resources.

“It drives me crazy when I see people resisting (the lottery) and thinking these are kids who don't have talent or aren't up to par,” she says. The goal of the lottery, she adds, is to give every child equal opportunity and remove barriers that “lock out” children from families with limited means.

Patricia Warnock, head of the musical theater program at ESA, supports equality and diversity but wants to return to locally controlled, merit-based admissions with built-in equity measures.

Even before the lottery, ESA had been working to expand access, she said. The school changed its audition process to value potential over preparation and offered free workshops and training to any interested student. “We worked really hard on the evening course.”

ESA held a roadshow, visiting primary schools in areas such as Rexdale to attract more applicants. But Warnock says the council later banned the activity, arguing that students should be encouraged to attend local high schools.

She believes true affordability would mean strengthening arts education in elementary schools, increasing awareness of specialized programs and covering transportation costs for families who can't afford them, which is a “major barrier.”

Warnock says the lottery's effect is reflected in higher dropout rates, with more students leaving programs (or the school as a whole) after realizing they weren't a good fit. Last year, nine 9th grade students transferred, just one jump from one in 2019-20 and none the previous year. Meanwhile, the Year 11 musical theater class now has 35 students, up from 44 when it started in Year 9; before the lottery, few would have refused to participate.

She and her colleagues have also noticed a change in engagement since the lottery was introduced. There are kids in the film program who don't watch movies, or in the musical theater who don't want to sing. Often parents push their children into programs. The biggest difference, she says, is not talent, but engagement.

When it comes to the policy goal of increasing diversity, Warnock hasn't seen much change. If anything, she adds, it could also be the other way around, with more students from surrounding middle-class neighborhoods choosing ESA over their local school rather than kids traveling around town, as was often the case in the past.

Warnock insists the ESA curriculum has not been simplified, but acknowledges the wider range of skill levels among Year 9 entrants.

At Marc Garneau University, Jiang argues that specialized programs cannot thrive without merit-based admissions because they are reserved for students who have demonstrated interest or ability.

“This is happening at TOPS, with our math and science classes, where a lot of students just can't keep up with the pace, so it becomes very similar to the regular curriculum and loses its value,” he says.

He's also noticed a decline in school spirit, with clubs that once attracted 60 students now seeing half as many students.

“It's very, very sad,” said Jiang, one of the last group admitted under the old system. “These programs really mean a lot to us who grew up in them, who have benefited greatly from them and care very much about what they stand for.”

Jiang acknowledges that the old system was not perfect, but says the fix is ​​not a random choice. Instead, he suggests investing in more arts and robotics programs in elementary and secondary schools, especially in underserved communities, to give kids early exposure and spark interest in applying later.

At Rosedale Heights School of the Arts, 12th-grade student Hailey Jackson has also noticed a change in school spirit. When she was in 9th grade, Halloween Week was the highlight—themed dress-up days, karaoke, pumpkin carving and a cafeteria filled with costumed students. Now, she said, turnout has decreased, especially among the lower grades.

Jackson, the editor of the school newspaper, has also seen fewer LGBTQ students, which she believes has “changed the culture of the school a little bit.” Under the old local process, parents and teachers could petition the principal directly for students who would benefit from Rosedale's inclusive environment. But with the current centralized lottery, she worries that some teenagers who could have done well there never get the chance.

Jackson favors a merit-based model and says equality can still be achieved within that structure. Forgoing auditions and relying solely on the lottery risks excluding students who truly belong in these programs, she said.

Michael Daniszewski, co-chair of the William Lyon Mackenzie Collegiate Institute's parent council, wants the lottery to end. His son is in the school's MaCS advanced math, science and computer technology program.

“The last three years have been a failed experiment,” Danishevsky says. “We ended up lowering academic standards, increasing dropout rates, and schools and teachers struggling to balance classes in which some students were unprepared and others were not struggling.”

And he says the promised diversity “never materialized” mainly because MaCS was already very diverse in terms of race, religion, gender and socioeconomic background. The only real change, he adds, is that instead of selecting the best students, the program now randomly accepts students from the same background, including those who don't actually want to study there.

They analyzed the results University of Waterloo National Mathematical Olympiads and found that the launch of the lottery coincided with a decline in TDSB performance. For example, in 2024, four TDSB schools placed in the top 20 in the 10th grade competition—two with specialized programs and two without. By 2025, the first year the lottery allowed 10th graders, none ranked in the top 20.

“The only explanation consistent with the evidence,” the report concluded, “is that the lottery admissions policy itself significantly weakened student performance.”