A policy expert reviews Trump’s assertive foreign policy approach in Latin America : NPR

SCOTT SIMON, HOST:

When it comes to foreign policy in Latin America, the Trump administration is favoring a tougher approach, demanding control of the Panama Canal, bailout of Argentina with strings attached, and opposing tariffs on Brazil to influence the trial of a former president – and, as we just heard, the killing of alleged drug smugglers on boats in the Caribbean are all part of an escalating pressure campaign against the regime of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. Ivan Briscoe joins us. He is senior director of policy at the International Crisis Group. Thank you very much for being with us.

IVAN BRISCOE: It's a pleasure to be on your show. Thank you.

SIMON: What do you think is shaping the Trump administration's approach to Latin America?

BRISCOE: I don't think you can sum it up easily. I think there are different directions to this and that's what we're seeing across the region at the moment. At the core, of course, are domestic policies that control migrants, crack down heavily on the drug epidemic, especially fentanyl use, and rebuild the manufacturing industry in the United States. I think a lot of this has to do with the politics towards Latin America, where most of the migrants and drugs came from, and where most of the manufacturing industry went. The feeling that Latin America is doing the United States wrong has been exploited by Trump since the beginning of his political career.

But there are two more elements that I think are really important. One of them is the Monroe Doctrine – you know, the idea that the United States is the only truly major power that can operate on American soil. No other force can do this. But the final element is Trump's one-on-one relationships with leaders who are in his party's ideological camp, with whom he has strong personal relationships and with whom he is willing to make one-on-one deals, it seems, favor for favor, in an attempt to build a broader pro-Trump coalition, if you will, throughout Latin America. And this is a side of his approach that we are only beginning to see more of, and the consequences are very uncertain.

SIMON: Let me follow up on Venezuela because we have these boat strikes and now a confirmed CIA presence operating in Venezuela. Do you think that at the same time this could provoke some kind of regime change in Venezuela?

BRISCOE: I'm not so sure. And I think that's what's driving U.S. policy towards Venezuela to some extent at the moment – the sense that the Venezuelan government is actually weaker in some respects than it's ever been. This is the message that Nobel laureate and Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado is apparently promoting. But there is no denying that there is truth in this. The Venezuelan government lost elections last year. This prevented the actual results from being made public. This led to repression. But this was a major event that discredited the country in the region among its neighbors. And it is obvious that this weakens the movement from within.

But the problem – of course, the most practical problem – is that this government is embroiled in power. It has a very effective repressive mechanism. It's very close to the army. So, is there a real opportunity to sideline some of these allies or withdraw military support in order to bring about change? I'm not sure.

SIMON: Let's hear what Nobel Peace Prize winner and Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado had to say on our Sunday WEEKEND EDITION.

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MARIA CORINA MACHADO: Once Maduro leaves, the Cuban regime will follow. The Nicaraguan regime will follow suit. And for the first time in history, America will be free from communism and drug dictatorships.

SIMON: Do you share that confidence?

BRISCOE: No, because history tells us that we've seen this message spread from leading Latin American politicians, leading figures in Washington for decades. How many years have passed since the Cuban Revolution? It's hard to calculate in your head – 66 years, isn't it? This is a very long time. So, one has heard this before and is inclined to not believe it because in each case it is difficult to understand how this process occurs because these are highly authoritarian, repressive states with powerful secret police and intelligence services that are very quick to suppress any sign of dissent.

SIMON: Why do you think the Trump administration made aid to Argentina contingent on the outcome of the Argentine election? Why did President Trump side so harshly with President Miley?

BRISCOE: Well, they have a lot in common. Miley – he won by promising to cleanse the political elite, liberate the economy, stop all the nonsense – very similar messages – conservative social values, lean government, tough security measures. Trump sees Miley as his soul mate, and he believes that by forging strong ties with individual leaders – Miley, Bukele in El Salvador, Noboa in Ecuador – that will be the beginning of a gradual movement in the region towards much more pro-Trumpian governments that will work more closely with the United States and engage in the kind of deals and the kind of quid pro quo that I think Trump considers the most effective way to engage in diplomacy.

But I'm just not sure if this hardball game with Latin American countries, insisting that voters listen to what he says and do his bidding, will work. Latin Americans are very sensitive to attacks on their sovereignty, especially from the United States, and playing this game is very dangerous.

SIMON: Ivan Briscoe is senior director of policy at the International Crisis Group. Thank you very much for being with us.

BRISCOE: Thank you very much.

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