On Week 7 of “Sunday Night Football” San Francisco 49ers host Atlanta Falcons.
San Francisco comes into this game having lost two of its last three. 49ers become backup quarterback Mac Joneswho will play his fifth match in seven games instead of Brock Purdy. “Nines” receive somewhat healthier welcome back star tight end George Kittlebut they also remain under attack on both sides of the ball due to multiple injuries to their offensive corps and double turnovers Nick Bosa And Fred Warner on defense. They're in first place in the NFC West at the moment, but also risk falling behind due to health problems.
Atlanta breaks away from one of most impressive victories of the seasonhaving won Accounts on Monday evening. The Falcons, who improved to 3-2 with the win, were powered by a surprisingly effective defense complemented by Robinson's Sesame-Guided running game. Atlanta is looking keep up with the NFC South with a score of 5-1 piratesand to do this, he needs to continue accumulating winnings.
Can the Niners bounce back or will the Falcons suffer another loss? We'll find out soon enough. But before we look at the match in detail, let's see how you can watch the game.
Where to watch 49ers vs. Falcons live
- Date: Sunday 19 October | Time: 8:20 pm ET
- Location: Levi's Stadium – Santa Clara, California.
- TV: NBK | Broadcast: Fubo (try it for free)
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Chances: 49ers -2.5; O/U 47.5 (via Bookmaker DraftKings)
Bet on 49ers vs. Buccaneers and other NFL games at DraftKings Sportsbook.where new users receive $300 bonus bets and three free months NBA League Pass.
When the Falcons have the ball
Atlanta's offense has a strong overall record, with the Falcons ranking second in the league. NFL in total yards per game, but was inconsistent and struggled to score. The Falcons' 20 points per game ranks sixth in the league.
This is largely due to the fact that they were closed in the third week against Panthersbut they're also inconsistent in the areas where you need to be consistent to score: They converted just seven of their 16 red zone trips into touchdowns, giving them the sixth-lowest red zone conversion rate in the league. Instead, they relied somewhat on big plays to make trips to the end zone, with Robinson's two touchdowns of 50 yards or more accounting for 20% of Atlanta's offensive totals.
Michael Penix Jr.. was the main source of controversy. He was terrible in that game against Carolina, averaging 4.8 yards per attempt and throwing a pair of interceptions. He didn't play very well against Vikings in the second week too. But he succeeded by fighting one after another. Baker Mayfield Looked good in week 1 except for the interception. Commanders in Week 4 and did well last week against the Bills. Depending on what Penix you get in any given week can go a long way in determining what this offense will look like in Atlanta.
However, the foundation of the offense remains the running game. Robinson has finally added explosive play to his brilliance, and he now averages 5.8 yards per game for the year. Among 36 running backs with more than 50 carries, Robinson ranks seventh in rushing success rate, according to Tru Media, as well as second in the percentage of his runs that gain five or more yards (44.6%) and first in both deflection rate and yards after contact per attempt.
The 49ers rank 19th in rushing successes allowed, according to Tru Media, but they do a good job of limiting yards after contact, largely thanks to strong tackling. If they can keep Robinson at the mid-level instead of allowing big chunks of him when he loses tackles, they have a chance to contain the rushing attack to some degree.
Without Warner, the area above the middle of the field will be easier to attack in the passing game. This is an area that the Falcons like to attack with breakout routes, especially with Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts. We don't know yet Darnell Mooneywho missed last week's game will play after being limited in training all week. Either way, London will likely be a big target, but if Mooney goes out of the game, he could become a vacuum target like he was for Penix whenever the No. 2 receiver missed time.
San Francisco ranks 30th in opposing passing yards, so the Falcons should have some opportunities to get through the air here.
When the 49ers have the ball.
Atlanta's defense has been one of the biggest surprises of the season.
This is expected to be one of the worst units in NFLInstead, the Falcons were among the best. They register first in yards allowed per game, seventh in points allowed per game, first in FTN DVOA (defensive-adjusted value above average) and tied for fifth in Tru Media EPA per game. In fact, they made it into the top five.
The strength of the unit was against the pass, where the Falcons allowed their third-ranked opponents to succeed. Atlanta shockingly recorded a blood pressure rate of 41.8%, which ranks sixth in the ranking. NFLand did it, as fast as a madman: Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich sent extra hitters on a ridiculous 48.7% of opposing tackles, according to Tru Media.
These blitz plays were also super-effective: When they blitzed, the Falcons allowed only 54.8% completion rate and 6.4 yards per attempt, and they gave up explosive plays at half the league average.
The Falcons will face San Francisco backup Mac Jones in this game. Jones has effectively filled in for Brock Purdy this season, completing 67.3% of his passes with an average of 7.5 yards per attempt, throwing six touchdowns and three interceptions in four games.
However, he was very susceptible to pressure, which is not surprising given his history. He's eighth in the EPA in throws from a clean pocket, per Tru Media, and 31st (of 34 qualifiers) when he's under pressure. Once again, the Falcons had one of the highest pressures in the league. Jones himself was pressured only 29.1% of the time, third-lowest in the NFL, as he cleared the ball in just 2.62 seconds on average.
If he can clear the ball before the Rush has a chance to hit the target, he could potentially have some success here. But Atlanta's lighting department was sticky, which in turn played a role in the high level of pressure. If the Falcons can muddy the pocket, they have a chance to force Jones into a bad game.
Although the Falcons skimped on air, they were high vulnerable on the ground. They are penultimate (ahead only Cowboys) in opponent success rates, according to Tru Media, and gained 4.8 yards per carry. A lot of it was yards before contact, which isn't surprising given the body type of the Falcons up front (lighter and faster, not bigger and stronger). Opponents are averaging 1.89 yards before contact per attempt.
Unfortunately for the Niners, they have been extremely poor at running the ball this season. Christian McCaffrey averages just 3.1 yards per tote and has just one rushing score. In his best game on the ground, he averaged 4.2 yards per carry against Saints still in the second week. Luckily for San Francisco, help is on the way. Kittle is the best blocking tight end in the NFL and a key part of the team's running game. If he's healthy enough to play, he should be healthy enough to help run the run game against a unit that is very soft against the run.
Forecast
The Falcons have some matchup advantages here, especially on offense. But their superior defense has some potential areas to exploit, especially if you can clear the ball quickly and get playmakers into open space. Few players do this better than Kyle Shanahan, and the combination of McCaffrey and Kittle working in center field could lead to something. If the Niners can limit Robinson's explosive bursts, I'd like to see them do it at home.
Pick: 49ers – 23, Falcons – 20.
