After a severe and record-breaking flu season, doctors and health officials are bracing for a new wave of fevers, suffering and respiratory illnesses.
In the UK, health officials are warning early increase in flu levels among children and youth. In Japan, health officials recently declared a flu epidemic and closed schools after encountering unusually high number of flu cases at the beginning of the season.
What does this mean for the US?
Typically, influenza incidence begins to rise in November, along with RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) and enteroviruses. peak in February. But chaos with job cuts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Experts are concerned that the government shutdown could make it difficult to understand how the virus situation will evolve this fall.
Last US flu report. This was for the week ending September 20, when activity was minimal.
Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan, is concerned about the possibility of limited surveillance of influenza by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), leaving the United States blind to the size and scope of influenza outbreaks.
“This could impact everything from outreach campaigns to additional logistical efforts to actually distribute vaccines,” Rasmussen said. “This information may simply not be available, so it will be very difficult to coordinate a national response,” she said.
Last year's flu was severe. There were about 1.1 million. flu-related hospitalizationsthe highest rate in 14 years, according to the CDC. And there were the largest number of them visiting a doctor for influenza-like illnesses for more than a decade.
An estimated 38,000 to 99,000 deaths were associated with the 2024–2025 flu season. according to preliminary assessment Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). For children, it was one of the deadliest years on record: 280 children died from the flu. At least three of those children died in June and July of this year, well beyond the typical flu season.
How severe will the flu be?
The flu is notoriously difficult to predict, and things are already looking a little different this year.
In late August, the CDC predicted that this flu season will be milder than last year. However, there is a possibility that some age groups could be hit hard, especially if people don't get a flu shot.
Main flu strains those currently circulating are similar to those that caused serious outbreaks last season: H1N1 and H3N2 for influenza A as well as influenza B.
“It's too early to tell which strains will dominate this year's flu season, but there is certainly a risk that similar highly virulent strains could circulate again this year,” said Dr. George Diaz, a fellow of the Infectious Diseases Society of America and chief of medicine at Providence Regional Medical Center in Everett, Washington. “This forecast for a mild season may not be correct, and this could be another severe flu season,” he said.
“It’s still very early in the flu season in North America and it’s difficult to say for sure,” he added.
Even if someone got the flu last year, they would still be vulnerable to the new version because immunity weakens over time, especially in older adults and those with weakened immune systems, experts say.
When is the best time to get a flu shot?
Stress is just one factor in how bad things can get this year. Vaccine hesitancy and weakened public health infrastructure in the United States may contribute to the spread of influenza.
“This will be driven more by social and political changes than by changes related to virology,” Rasmussen said.
Last flu season less than half of children were vaccinated against influenzawhich is more than 20 percentage points less than in the 2019-2020 season. That trend is expected to continue this year, Rasmussen said.
Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, said it is difficult to predict how severe the situation will be this year in the U.S., but it is very unusual to have “two super-severe seasons in a row.”
So, while the virus hasn't changed much, getting vaccinated is the best way to protect yourself from the worst of the season.
“October is the ideal time to get vaccinated,” he said. “This should provide very reasonable protection throughout what we consider flu season, February through March.”
