Expert picks, best bets: Can Reinier de Ridder continue his 2025 win streak?

This is one of the most exciting series in the UFC. Reinier de Ridder (21-2) returns to action for the fourth time this year at UFC Fight Night in Vancouver, British Columbia, on Saturday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, prelims at 4 p.m.). His opponent Brendan Allen (25-7), enters the game as soon as possible after Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez withdrew due to injury last month.

Knight, 6th middleweight according to ESPN.undefeated in four fights in the UFC, and Allen, No. 10 by ESPN, is also coming off a win. He won a unanimous decision over the veteran Marvin Vettori in July.

ESPN MMA analysts Dean Thomas and Anthony Smith provide their picks for the main events, while ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds information on the overpriced bets available on the fight card.

Middleweight Main Event

For Allen to win fights, he must be able to defeat his opponent. He is usually the best wrestler in every fight he wins. Here I think De Ridder is probably the better wrestler. De Ridder should be able to change any position Allen puts him in and come out on top. I'm talking about De Ridder by decision, but it wouldn't surprise me if De Ridder gets the pitch. — Yours, Thomas

Allen is a better striker than De Ridder and I think he is a better wrestler. I don't think De Ridder can beat him, so the fight will have to be controlled by Allen. If I end up being wrong on this, I think it will be because Allen sometimes loses speed at high tempos. When he pushed really hard, we saw him fall behind in the later rounds, but I think he has the tools to win this match. — Anthony Smith

Bet Analysis

Odds are accurate as of October 16th. For the most up-to-date odds information, visit ESPN BET.

Parker: De Ridder will win (-210). If Allen can pull off the loss, he could put himself in position for the middleweight title in 2026. However, I believe the five-round fight will favor DeRidder over Allen. De Ridder had the advantage in five rounds Robert Whittaker in July and was able to dictate the pace in the final round to take the win. If Allen doesn't catch De Ridder in the first round, his gas tank will likely run out as the fight progresses, giving De Ridder the opportunity to take the win.

Parker's best bets for the rest of the card

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Welterweight: Kevin Holland against. Mike Malott

More than 1.5 rounds: This should be an incredibly close fight between two well-rounded fighters. After a knockout loss Daniel Rodriguez Come July, I expect fan favorite Holland to be more defensive-minded and less reckless on offense to avoid getting hit by Malott, who is riding a two-fight winning streak. Malott has also been using his wrestling and ground skills lately, which will come in handy here. I think Malott will have success with takedowns and will keep Holland on his back for most of the fight. If the finish happens, I can see it coming late in the fight, so take 1.5 rounds.

Men's Bantamweight: Aymann Zahabi against Marlon Vera

Zahabi to win (-135): After defeating Jose Aldo Zahabi will look to add another seasoned veteran and former title contender to his resume in Montreal in May. Both Zahabi and Vera are extremely durable, but the difference in their fight will be Zahabi's performance and Vera's tendency to start out slow. Zahabi also has the ability to defeat Vera and keep him there if he doesn't succeed on his feet. On top of that, Vera received a lot of injuries during her 15-year professional career. Most likely, this fight will end for a long time, and Zahabi will win by decision.

Women's flyweight: Manon Fiore against. Jasmine Jasudavičius

Manon wins by decision: In his first fight since losing the title shot. Valentina Shevchenko In May, Fiorot will meet with the increasingly popular Jasdavichus in Fiorot's homeland, Canada. This should be an interesting fight between two talented fighters. Fiorot is a 2 to 1 favorite and I think that makes sense. She's a better striker on her feet, and if Jasdavičius can't take Fiorot to the ground, I expect Fiorot to win the three-round kickboxing fight by decision.