Why there is no such thing as a perfect football tactic | Soccer

Do you think playstyles develop gradually or in cycles? Will things return naturally, or is it more of a rock, paper, scissors issue, with one style pitted against another for a short time as the current style becomes widespread? – Floor

I don't like the term “cyclical” in relation to tactics because it implies inevitability. Winter, spring, summer, autumn is a cycle; what happens in football tactics is not. When old ideas are repurposed for the modern era, they come with the knowledge of what came before. So, to take an extreme example, when Pep Guardiola started fielding teams in a 3-2-2-3 formation, this was not the case. WM, which was used by Herbert Chapman in the late 1920s.because football has changed a lot over the past 100 years: the players are better, the pitches are better, the equipment is better, we understand pressing, we have data and sophisticated analytical modeling.

Likewise, we must be careful not to imagine that there is a preferred model—that one tactical system is necessarily better than another. It's not that there is a better way to play and everyone strives to achieve a style that comes closest to it. It all depends on the circumstances: the best way to play is only for a certain set of players and in certain circumstances.

However, there are clearly times when one style dominates. For example, the arrival of Rafa Benitez and Jose Mourinho into English football in the summer of 2004 made control the defining approach of the Premier League. Pep Guardiola's appointment in 2016 brought him positional play to England, which had a huge impact on all divisions, even as it developed. Firstly, there was the challenge of Jurgen Klopp, which led to the approach of Guardiola and the German player. Gegenpressing getting closer to each other. He has since rotated the full-backs, moved to a back four made up entirely of centre-backs and brought John Stones forward as the signing of Erling Haaland effectively meant that the centre-forward no longer served as an auxiliary midfielder.

Over the past few months, there have been radical changes. Everyone seems to agree, not least from Guardiola himself, that the style he brought to England is no longer effective. Last season he talked about teams like Bournemouth and Newcastle playing modern football – although, in context, he was talking less about players running with the ball more (as is widely interpreted) and more about how a crowded fixture list makes it almost impossible to properly prepare players for a match. positional playwhich requires a different strategic approach for each game. In this sense, the recent shift towards more direct football is not so much cyclical or gradual as it is reactive – a means of combating external factors.

More generally, football finds itself less in a cycle than in a series of competing dialectics. As the emphasis on maintaining possession grew, centre-backs – at least at elite clubs – began to be selected less for their defensive qualities and more for their ability to pass the ball. This meant that there was less emphasis on strength or heading, leaving them vulnerable to larger, more powerful centre-forwards. Bring back the old lumbering centre-backs, however, and they will be susceptible to targeted pressing. But then the big centre-forwards may not be able to make the constant fast sprints needed to press effectively.

And that's just one element. We are used to wide forwards who cut into the field with their stronger foot, but as center forwards become bigger, better headers and perhaps less adept at creating space for a teammate coming into the field, there may be a growing preference for wide players who do not roll over, but beat the outside full-back to deliver excellent crosses.

There are always wheels within wheels, which means that terms like “cyclic” or “incremental” will always seem simplistic.

With summers consistently hot in North America, will we see a return to the type of World Cup we saw in 1970 and 1982, when intense heat reduced the effectiveness of pressing? And does this open up the tournament to teams that could fill the field with creative tens? — Jonathan

I liked it your newsletter in September about the new defensive mentality in football, where, as you noted, “we are seeing a more physical game, focused on crosses, set-pieces and not giving anything away.” Do you think we will see this at the World Championships next year as well? – Bethany

This pair continues the previous question. Temperature will definitely make a difference. Consistent pressing will be very difficult and, as at the Club World Cup, I think we will see periods in games where both teams are effectively rested. I suspect most teams will be deep in the low block, meaning very little room for tens. Controlling the tempo of games, keeping things tight defensively, and destroying opponents through attrition may ultimately be effective. Standard games will likely be a major factor.

In 2022, Morocco made a surprise run to the semi-finals, and in 2018, Croatia reached the final. Which “smaller” country do you think could make a big breakthrough this time (I'm eyeing Norway)? – Wally

It's a little baffling that the World Cup is such a closed tournament while there have been upheavals at the Euros, Africa Cup of Nations and Asian Cup. But it seems that something about this event – or the need to play one more game than in the confederation tournaments – makes a big difference. Morocco and Senegal are probably the most likely African teams to achieve a decent win (or DR Congo if they make the knockout stages). As you say, Norway, who have had some great players for a long time, are playing very well, and Switzerland have become a very consistent team. But the team, I think, could really surprise people. Ecuadorwhich has the likes of Kaysian, Willian Pacho and Pervis Stupignan, as well as Quified S, the second from Conmebol.

• This is an extract from Football with Jonathan Wilson, Guardian US's weekly look at the game in Europe and beyond. Subscribe for free here. Have a question for Jonathan? E-mail [email protected]and he'll answer the best questions in a future episode.