Sometimes the best bets aren't the best bets. They're the ones that make you cringe, laugh, and question every life choice you make when you hover over the “Submit” button.
Week 7 of college football is just that kind of card. We've got a matchup so ugly you'll want to wash your hands after reading it, an option that promises a four-quarter pot and a team total that feels like a trap but might just be a gift.
This is not the glamorous side of betting, but there are rough edges. We've taken a few hits from the variance gods this season, but we're heading back this week. Down, but never out.
All chances ESP RATE
Choose: LESS THAN 43.5
This amount is small for a reason. Both teams are built to win with defense, and Oklahoma may be the best team on the field. The Sooners show up where it matters most, at the highest level against both the run and the pass, allowing just three touchdowns on the season. Even in the red zone, opponents are 2-of-7 finding the end zone.
The fight for pressure will also decide a lot here. Both fronts can go after the quarterback, but OU is more disruptive and more consistent in destroying pockets. This is important against Texas QB. Arch Manningwho became a different player when things went wrong. He has already taken nine bags and fought six times against Florida one.
In four of his five starts, he held the ball for three or more seconds (3.32 average), which gives defenses plenty of time to get to the target, and that's a problem against this type of offense.
This is where the drives begin to stall and the explosive capabilities disappear. If Texas is going to win, it will likely be by relying on the run, slowing this game down, stringing together 10-, 12-, and 14-play drives that will only help an under-represented ticket.
Both defenses do a great job of forcing long fields and preventing touchdowns off the board, so points will have to be earned the hard way. With OU's red zone resistance and Texas struggling for third place, it feels like an old school tug of war where reaching 40 could be difficult.
Choose: University of Massachusetts +2.5
It makes me question my entire existence. This is one of those bets that somehow makes sense. The truth is that Kent's win total for the season was 1.5. I know this because I wrote about it before the season, which is the only reason this game caught my attention in the first place. Because now the same team gets three points in October. It has to be a choice. And when the line is not true, we support the dog.
Both of these teams are bad. Like, at the bottom of the barrel, you’re not good at moving the ball. Kent State's only win came in the FCS. Merrimackand they were losing this game with five minutes left. UMass lost to FCS Bryant … one at a time. This is exactly the kind of confrontation we are dealing with: ugly, inconvenient and ridiculously contradictory.
The advantage here is who is less broken. UMass is at least better at hitting and tackling the ball, which is more likely to make the quarterback uncomfortable. Kent State, on the other hand, doesn't have much of a rush going forward and misses a lot of stops.
Both defenses rank in the bottom five in coverage, both offenses are averaging less than 14 points per game, and both have allowed more than 75% of their red zone trips to result in touchdowns.
Even if Kent State QB Drew DeShields (he missed the last game due to injury), this offense is barely functioning.
Is it a bet where you laugh by clicking on it, but score points in a game that will probably end by one point anyway? This is too much value to pass up.
Choose: Total Kansas team UNDER 21.5 (-115)
I'm not going to lie, I'm betting on the veteran QB. Milestone Daniels Not getting 22 points doesn't feel good in my stomach. But let me tell you why I'm still doing this.
Kansas looks like a threat with a quarterback who can throw the ball deep and a defense that can make the run, but the Jayhawks are actually fragile. Daniels' passing performance takes place day and night while he is under pressure; he's completing 78% of his passes and throwing for 11.6 yards per attempt when he stays clean in the pocket, but those numbers drop to 38.6% and 5.1 YPA under pressure.
And now he'll face a technical defense that ranks second in the country in total pressure with a top-three pass rush and the No. 1 coverage block.
The Kansas Run game is built on spontaneous plays rather than consistency. Both Williams releases And Daniel Hishaw Jr.. are excellent defenders, but both average less than three yards after contact on most plays and have trouble keeping the offense ahead of the chains.
The Red Raiders don't give you those rushes and are ranked No. 1 in rushing defense and No. 5 in tackling.
Once Kansas gets into the top 20, it makes it difficult for them to finish. Things got tougher in this game because Tech allowed just nine trips into the red zone on the season, five of which resulted in touchdowns.
It's scary because it doesn't feel right, but the reality is that Kansas will have to play almost perfectly to get 22 points. I'll take it away.
Thoughts on the season
I'll be honest. This season has been volatile. It's frustrating when the results don't match, but it's part of the game. You show up and you keep digging and you keep shooting because you believe in the work you've done. Fluctuations don't last forever, and when things start to break, it's preparation that makes the difference. Good luck! We're already halfway there.
