Looks like Republicans are getting too big for their britches in Efforts led by Donald Trump To rig the 2026 midterm elections by redrawing congressional districts in favor of the Republican Party, an arrogance that could backfire.
On Monday, the Republican-controlled Utah Legislature past a new congressional map that effectively opens the door for the party to lose two seats in the state's four-member U.S. House delegation.
Utah adopted the new map on the orders of a state judge who rules In August, the incumbent Republican congressional gerrymander violated a law that required the state to use a nonpartisan commission in drawing districts.
But instead of turning one of the state's four seats blue, centering it around Democratic-heavy Salt Lake City, as the independent redistricting commission had proposed, Republicans instead redrew the map to divided Salt Lake City into two countiesThe move ensures President Donald Trump will win all four state House seats, albeit by a smaller margin than the illegal map that a judge rejected.
However, if a Democratic wave materializes in 2026 amid the backlash against Trump and his party's loyalty to his lawlessness, it could result in Republicans actually losing two seats rather than just one.
“There are two seats on the map that Trump won by about 2 and 7 points, respectively. Such a plan could end up being a “dummy plan”—a situation where the dominant party draws a map in its favor that backfires and benefits the opposing party,” Jeffrey Skelly, chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ. wrote about the project of a new map of Utah.
The new map will still need to be approved by a judge before it goes into effect.
Meanwhile, things are look good for California Democratswhere the November ballot asks voters whether the Legislature should redraw the state's congressional maps in response to GOP redistricting efforts in Texas.
On Wednesday, Punchbowl News reported that Republicans appear to be giving up in the fight over redistricting in California, believing Democrats' efforts to frame the referendum as a check on Trump's power will result in the election law being passed. Polls suggest that this measure would be passed if elections were held today.
If the bill passes, California's redrawn map would likely undo the gains Republicans are seeking to make in Texas.
Moreover, Republican efforts to redraw Indiana's congressional map appear stop. GOP lawmakers fear efforts to flip Democrats' seats, Politico's Adam Wren reported— so much so that the White House is dispatching Vice President J.D. Vance to force GOP lawmakers into submission.
Democrats, meanwhile, say that despite Republicans' best efforts to pave the way to victory, unpopular GOP actions will continue to occur. lose the majority in the House of Representatives next November.
“[Trump] trying to do everything possible to keep the House of Representatives in 2026. All the redistricting in the world won't help when Trump's health insurance payments kick in,” Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.). wrote Tuesday in a post on X. “24 million voters, many in swing districts, will see their insurance costs rise. Good luck, Don!”
