IThe UN's Cop30 climate summit begins this month. BethlehemBrazil – preceded by a meeting of key leaders. This is the decisive moment. UN scientists have not yet published calculations based on the latest round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – as countries' emissions commitments are known. But Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has called leaders together because it is already clear that current emissions commitments are far from sufficient. The Paris threshold of 1.5C was crossed last year. Without more decisive action, this temporary gap will become irreversible – with devastating consequences for people and the planet.
Lula's diplomatic activities outreach activities Donald Trump calling the climate crisis a “scam” suggests he is trying to get key players on board before Belen. Having heavyweights in the room can make all the difference. Ten years ago in Paris, the presence of world leaders proved decisive in sealing an ambitious deal. That's why it's so important that Sir Keir Starmer attends. He may not be the most powerful world leader, but his presence is a moral and diplomatic imperative. If King Charles can, he should go too. Soft power can help restore the spirit of cooperation and keep hopes alive for the Paris Agreement.
The UK is historically one of the world's biggest polluters due to early industrialization and him empire. But climate policies of the last two decades have been ambitious compared with other rich countries, and the UK's NDC is one of the few to analysts seen as helping to achieve the 1.5C target. All of this makes it even more important that Sir Keir is personally present in Brazil and champions evidence-based policies at multilateral climate talks.
Cop30 comes at a difficult time for UK climate policy. Tory's promise cancel The Climate Change Act was a populist position aimed at pandering to the anti-science, Trumpian right. Labor should not falter. It was reported that Sir Keir's aides are advising against traveling to Belem for fear of a backlash from Reform UK. Retreat would be cowardly and wrong. Instead, Sir Keir must renew his commitment to national goals and the COP process, confident that the transition to renewable energy is the right one and popular.
Sir Keir is of course not the only leader who should be making travel plans. Leaders Australia and Canada made climate policy part of their pitches to voters in recent elections. They too must go to Belém, as should the leaders of the EU, China, India and Japan. As former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon notedthe presence is not ceremonial, but a test of leadership. He warned that the world was watching and said history would remember those who showed up.
Trump's election victory was dangerous failure towards a global transition to green energy. But 33 years after the Brazil Earth Summit that started the process, it has also become an occasion for other governments to step up action. Perhaps Lula could even convince Will Mr. Trump change his mind? If there was ever a time to show that climate is a diplomatic priority, this is it. Sir Keir must not leave the question of his presence any longer. He must make up his mind and leave.
