Canada's Prime Minister is doing everything he can to keep Canada-US relations on the right trackbut the idea of a partnership between the two countries has reached a dead end.
The meeting between Mark Carney and Donald Trump in the Oval Office went without much surprise. In those rare moments when his master deigned to defer to him, Carney misrepresented himself by praising the “transforming president” in the hope of remaining in his good graces.
The Prime Minister escaped unharmed, but will this apparent good understanding translate into tangible benefits for Canadians? Not sure.
Game on two levels
Business negotiations are like the proverbial iceberg, only the tip is visible. The real work is invisible and involves teams of negotiators constantly returning to the many tensions that are inevitable in such large and complex business relationships.
At this level the news is not bad. Negotiations are going well. The problem is that, contrary to the usual iceberg metaphor, 90% of the uncertainty in a relationship comes from the visible part. Despite behind-the-scenes progress, the bilateral relationship is at the mercy of the president, who sets tariffs according to his mood at the time, rather than economic or political logic.
Next steps
With luck, Canada can count on American courts to rein in the capricious use of tariffs by a president who blithely intrudes on Congress's constitutional jurisdiction.
Meanwhile, Carney's delicate task is managing the mood of a pathologically unpredictable colleague whose attention span is inversely proportional to the size of his ego.
No matter what, we will have to survive the next few months before economic reality, pressure from groups harmed by Trump's senseless policies, and the electoral sanctions that await him in November 2026 lead to a correction of American trade policy. Until then, these policies will depend on the surprise box that is the White House.
Two important truths
Let's see if the closed-door negotiations between Carney and Trump achieved more than the sad public spectacle they offered in the Oval Office.
In his few minutes of speech, Carney managed to articulate the first inescapable truth: the United States will have a much better chance of confronting the Chinese giant if it forms a single bloc with its neighbors.
If there is one common thread in Donald Trump's rambling monologues, it is that for him, other countries are either competitors, customers or suppliers, but never partners.
Mark Carney's main task, therefore, is to persuade Trump to accept another inescapable truth: contrary to what he constantly repeats, the North American economy has prospered in recent decades, and that success is largely due to the fact that the countries in question have acted in partnership.
Unfortunately, Donald Trump has never understood, and probably never will understand, the idea that there is more to be gained from doing business between partners who respect each other than between dominants and subordinates.
