3DownNation CFL picks straight-up & against the spread: East & West Semi-Finals

3DownNation

The CFL playoffs are finally here and we're in for two exciting matchups featuring arguably the hottest teams in the league. While the specter of a potential Blue Jays Game 7 looms over the weekend, true Canadian sports fans know what they'll be doing heading into the opener.

Vancouver reporter JC Abbott remains our top pick, while Regina reporter Brendan McGuire has already won our title for popularity. Below are our predictions for Saturday's CFL semifinals.

Saturday, November 1: Winnipeg Blue Bombers V Montreal Alouettes (-6) at 2:00 pm ET

On Saturday afternoon, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers visit the Montreal Alouettes for the East Semi-Finals, where they will attempt to take the first step toward becoming the first crossover team in CFL history to make it to the Gray Cup. The Alouettes are six-point home favorites despite losing both regular season meetings with the Blue Bombers, although franchise quarterback Davis Alexander did not start any games for the Alouettes. Alexander is 7-0 as a starter in Montreal this season, although the team is dealing with some key recent injuries with Mustafa Johnson questionable for the game. Meanwhile, in Winnipeg, Nick Demski did not practice because the ankle injury he suffered against Edmonton in Week 19 has left him questionable.

ABBOTT: The Blue Bombers have a path to winning this game if they can handle Brady Oliveira, but that puts all the pressure on Jordan Younger's defense to be perfect. If Davis Alexander can make even one of those big plays he's known for, I just don't think Winnipeg has a good enough defenseman to bounce back – something you wouldn't have heard me say a few years ago.

Directly: Montreal. Anti-spread: Winnipeg.

BALLANTINE: Winnipeg has looked old and slow all season, and this could be the first year since 2019 that we don't see the Bombers reach a Gray Cup game. Conversely, I've seen many QBs get off to a hot start only to see it falter at the worst possible time. Davis Alexander out? My intuition says not yet.

Directly: Montreal. Anti-spread: Montreal.

SPICY: Do I want to play against a Bomber team that will be foolishly motivated to make a run at the Gray Cup? No. Will I do it? Yes. While I'm leery of Alexander meeting this moment in his playoff debut, I just think the Alouettes have the better lineup.

Directly: Montreal. Anti-spread: Winnipeg.

GASSON: Montreal is a Gray Cup contender with Davis Alexander. Winnipeg's offense is bad enough to destroy a great defense and good special teams.

Directly: Montreal. Anti-spread: Montreal.

HERRERA-VERGARA: Montreal is healthier and the Bombers have never faced Davis Alexander. Winnipeg will be in control with the run game and Brady Oliviera, but in the end I feel the Als will be too much to handle.

Directly: Montreal. Anti-spread: Winnipeg.

HODGE: Montreal's injuries last week are a bit of a concern, but the team's undefeated record under Davis Alexander is hard to ignore. The bad weather should help the Blue Bombers and they should stay in the game if they are defending the football, but they feel a little outclassed against the Alouettes.

Directly: Montreal. Anti-spread: Winnipeg.

HOSKINS: Montreal recovered and took a few hits last week. I don't see this stopping them from making it to the Eastern Finals. Winnipeg will fight to keep their streak alive but fall short.

Directly: Montreal. Anti-spread: Winnipeg.

KLEIN: Montreal lost a little last week, but for the most part they have gotten healthier and more consistent as the year has gone on. I don't think the same can be said about Winnipeg. The Bombers are struggling to protect Zach Collaros and he is struggling to protect the football. Montreal is thriving in both of these areas, making this a bad matchup for the Gray Cup hosts.

Directly: Montreal. Anti-spread: Montreal.

McGuire: Zach Collaros hasn't lost a non-Grey Cup playoff game since 2016. Winnipeg still has the fourth-best player in the CFL and a pretty good defense to boot. But Montreal has defenseman Davis Alexander, still undefeated after 11 starts, and a boisterous crowd at Percival Molson Stadium in its back pocket. How could I go against this? I won't.

Directly: Montreal. Anti-spread: Montreal.

THOMAS: Winnipeg no longer looks like the Winnipeg of old. Montreal is healthy and has been playing in the playoffs for the last month.

Directly: Montreal. Anti-spread: Montreal.

RESULTS STRAIGHT: Montreal 10, Winnipeg 0.

TOTAL BY SPREAD: Montreal 5, Winnipeg 5.

Saturday, November 1: Calgary Stampeders V BC Lions (-5) at 5:30 pm ET

The Calgary Stampeders will face the BC Lions in the Western semi-finals late Saturday night, with the home team holding a five-point lead. The Lions won both regular season meetings between these two teams in lopsided fashion as Nathan Rourke outplayed former teammate Vernon Adams Jr., who will return to Vancouver in red and white. Dedrick Mills won a CFL title with Calgary, but the Stampeders have some health concerns along the offensive line with Joshua Coker ruled out and Preston Nichols listed as questionable. Meanwhile, BC listed right tackle Dejon Allen, Canadian wide receiver Justin McInnis and running back James Butler as questionable after a week of inconsistent practice participation.

ABBOTT: BC fans know all too well how explosive Big Play VA can be when he's on his game, but the Lions defense hasn't let that become an issue in two games this season. The Stamps may also find themselves in a tight spot at right tackle as Mathieu Betts licks his tackles in the neutral zone. Nathan Rourke will have much less trouble with the Calgary player he took to the woodshed twice.

Straight Up: BC Against Spread: BC

BALLANTINE: Calgary's defense was torched twice by Nathan Rourke during a four-game losing streak but has since returned to form, allowing fewer points in each of the last three games. The return of linebacker Markel Lee was huge and could help spark the upset.

Directly: Calgary. Anti-spread: Calgary.

SPICY: Games are always won in the trenches, especially in the playoffs. During the regular season, the Lions allowed the fewest sacks but earned the most. If Rourke has time, he will destroy the Marks (again).

Straight Up: BC Against Spread: BC

GASSON: This game is played within the friendly confines of BC Place, which should help both offenses, especially BC's. Calgary has a good defense, but Nathan Rourke is on another level right now.

Straight Up: BC Against Spread: BC

HERRERA-VERGARA: I can't believe the spread isn't greater. To begin with, the game is played indoors. The Lions are a healthier team then, with arguably their most outstanding player at the helm. I don't see how Calgary can last until the end.

Straight Up: BC Against Spread: BC

HODGE: Frankly, I'm surprised this line isn't wider. The Lions have defeated Calgary twice in just the last six weeks and should be considered the best team in the CFL at the moment. Given the injuries the Stampeders have suffered along the offensive line, expect Matthew Betts, Jonah Tavai and Levi Bell to face Vernon Adams Jr. all day.

Straight Up: BC Against Spread: BC

HOSKINS: In the second half of the regular season, we learned that we were lucky to watch Nathan Rourke and this offense. They have moved back up to take their home field and will take full advantage of this.

Straight Up: BC Against Spread: BC

KLEIN: The Lions dominated Calgary in two meetings in the second half of the season. Calgary seemed to take it personally, winning three games in a row after that, but two of those wins came over eliminated teams in Toronto and Edmonton. Nathan Rourke is at least a level above anyone Calgary might face in these games, and he'll show that in the playoff spotlight.

Straight Up: BC Against Spread: BC

McGuire: Vernon Adams Jr. will be more motivated to beat Nathan Rourke than the other way around, and in these playoff games it's usually about who wants it more than anything else. Bob Slovik's defense also looks like it has recovered somewhat from the loss of Folarin Orimolade and over the last three weeks has looked more like the team that started 8-3 than the one that lost four straight in late September/early October. But the Stumps are built to play outdoors, and unfortunately for them, this game will be played indoors against a Lions team built to play indoors.

Straight Up: BC Against Spread: BC

THOMAS: BC is my favorite to win the West. I give Calgary credit for getting off to such a strong start and for turning the tide, but the Lions' O will be too big.

Straight Up: BC Against Spread: BC

RESULTS STRAIGHT: BC 9, Calgary 1.

TOTAL BY SPREAD: BC 9, Calgary 1.

Records 2025 (straight)

Abbott – 55–26
HOSKINS – 52-29
McGwire – 52-29
HODGE – 51-30
HERRERA-VERGARA – 51-30
BALLANTINE – 50-31
KLEIN – 49-32
THOMAS – 48-33
GASSON – 44-37
SHARP – 44-37

2025 records (against spread)

McGuire – 51-30
Abbott – 44–37
THOMAS – 43-38
HERRERA-VERGARA – 42-39
BALLANTINE – 41-40
KLEIN – 41-40
SHARP – 39-42
HODGE – 38-43
GASSON – 38-43
HOSKINS – 36–45

Leave a Comment