The Canadian Football League now enters the postseason with the division semi-finals set for Saturday. This means we only have five games left so we can really dive into these matches.
It's the best time of year to be a CFL fan, so let's see if we can find an edge in the betting.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes – Saturday, November 1st, 2:00 pm ET.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers advance to the Eastern Division bracket to face the Montreal Alouettes.
Injuries have caused problems throughout the season for both of these clubs, so looking at the numbers for the season is no easy task. The difference is that many of Montreal's key players have gotten healthier and more consistent as the year has gone on. The same cannot be said about Winnipeg.
The Bombers have won four of their last five to get into this spot, but only one of those wins will give you any confidence.
Winnipeg's consistency issues are highlighted by the play of QB Zach Collaros. Threw two times for 367 yards and a touchdown in Winnipeg's 40-3 win over Hamilton. Even with those numbers, he's averaging just 229 yards per game in his last four games, throwing for four TDs and five INTs.
Collaros will face an Alouettes team that has allowed the fewest passing yards in the league this year. They haven't allowed a QB to throw for more than 290 yards since Week 12 against Nathan Rourke. This is not an easy defense to try to defend against.
A key matchup for Montreal defensively is the run game. The Alouettes posted the fourth-most rushing yards in the league, and Brady Oliveira was fourth in rushing despite missing some time due to injury. In the only game the two teams played that mattered to both, Oliveira rushed for 137 yards and a touchdown. Winnipeg needs to get their star back to reach that level again if they want to advance to the East finals next week.
When Montreal have the ball, Davis Alexander is fantastic. The Portland State starter has thrown for over 300 yards in two of his three games since returning from injury and remains an ideal starter.
He's up against a Winnipeg passing defense that has allowed him the second-most passing yards in the league this year. Winnipeg has held opposing QBs to under 250 yards in nine of their last 10 games.
Admittedly, these two are closer than I thought in some of these numbers. Even before I started I was leaning towards Montreal, but some data made me reconsider my opinion. However, after digging further, I discovered a couple of problem areas that I simply cannot ignore.
One of the reasons why teams don't gain a lot of yards against Montreal is because their QBs can't throw the ball against the Als defense. Montreal led the league in sacks this year, while Winnipeg allowed the most sacks of any playoff team. This is very bad news for the Bombers, who have had serious trouble keeping Zach Collaros in games this year.
Another potentially critical issue for Winnipeg is employee turnover. Montreal had the third-best turnover rate in the league, while Winnipeg had the second-worst turnover rate in the CFL. Only Ottawa had a worse ratio than the Bombers this year. We know that when the calendar turns to November, you need to protect your QB and protect the football. Winnipeg has struggled to do both.
The last number dropped was Winnipeg's away record. The Bombers have won just three road games this year and had to face a backup QB in two of those three, including a Week 12 win in Montreal over James Morgan and the Alouettes.
Winnipeg's defense should be enough to keep the score low. But their defensive and turnover issues keep them from getting within a TD of the Alouettes.
PICK: Montreal -6, UNDER 49.5 yards, Zach Collaros UNDER 255.5 yards.
Calgary Stampeders – BC Lions – Saturday, November 1, 5:30 pm ET.
The Calgary Stampeders and BC Lions will square off with a trip to Regina in the West semi-finals.
The Lions found success late in the year, winning six games in a row by an average margin of 13 points. Two of those wins came this weekend over their rival, the Calgary Stampeders. Obviously, the second loss woke Calgary up as they haven't lost since their Week 18 loss in Vancouver.
If you like good QB play, this game will be fun to watch. Nathan Rourke missed two games of the season due to injury, but he apparently used the time off to find the Superman cape as the Canadian prop was superb upon his return. Starting in Week 5, he had only one game with fewer than 250 yards passing, finishing the year with 12 games of 300 yards or more. Rourke led the league in completions of 30 yards or more and had the best completion percentage of passes over 20 yards.
That will be tested against a Calgary team that has allowed the third-most big plays in the league this season. The Stampeders' defense dominated to start the year, but a midseason injury to Folarin Orimolade changed everything.
If you want to know when Orimolad left Stamps' defense, you can clearly see the before and after on the schedule. The dominant edge rusher's last game played was in Week 13 against Edmonton. Up to this point, Calgary was 8-3 and scoring 19 points per game. After the injury, Calgary went 3–4 and scored 28.8 points per game. They went from scoring the best points in the league to the worst among playoff teams.
The Stamps' defense has improved over the past three weeks, allowing just 14.3 points per game. But two of the three opponents they faced were not in the playoffs. It remains to be seen what this defense can do against real competition, and it may not matter if Rourke is on his game.
On the opposite line is Vernon Adams Jr., whose numbers don't match the real impact he's had in Calgary all year. The former Lyon has only had six games this season in which he has thrown for more than 275 yards. One of those games was against BC, but he also threw for just 125 yards in another game against his old teammates.
Just like in the Eastern Semifinals, the run game could play a big role in this matchup. Dedrick Mills finished as the league's leading rusher this year while tied for first in TDs. He will face a Lions team that has given up the third-lowest scoring record this season. In Mills' two games against the Lions, he totaled 157 yards on 22 receptions and added 69 receiving yards on 10 receptions. BC will have to clean this up and force VA into some longer second downs if they want to make it to the Western Finals.
These two have been on different paths all season. Calgary dominated early in the year while the Lions struggled to find consistency. Then, as the year wore on, Calgary lost its way and the Lions found their roar. I expect that to continue into the Western Semi-Finals.
PICK: BC-5, Dedrick Mills OVER 73.5 yards.
