The Taurid meteor shower is a fall spectacle that can sometimes cause “Halloween fireballs.” Dust, rocks and other debris from Comet Encke falling through Earth's atmosphere cause these streaking flashes of light. Larger pieces of debris usually cause fireballs.
Most of the space debris that makes up this meteor shower is quite small and likely burns up completely before it reaches the Earth's surface. But what if these Halloween fireballs were much bigger? Will the planet be in danger?
New research from the University of New Mexico (UNM) published in the journal Acta Astronauticslooks at how future Taurid meteor showers in 2032 and 2036 could create near-Earth objects (NEOs) that may require planetary protection.
What is planetary protection?
It is often possible to see meteor showers in the atmosphere of our planet, caused by small space debris, such as dust and rocks. However, events such as the fall of the Tunguska asteroid and the meteorite in Chelyabinsk are much less common.
When these larger meteor events occur, they can cause serious damage rather than end of the planet damage—but enough to cause concern. Having a mitigation plan in place to hopefully ward off these more severe impacts could help keep the planet safe.
“Planetary defense is an interdisciplinary and internationally coordinated effort to protect the Earth and its inhabitants from the effects of Near-Earth objects (NEOs)” Mark Boslow, UNM research professor and lead author of the study, said in the journal press release.
“This requires research to detect and track NEOs, campaigns to characterize hazardous objects, modeling efforts to understand and predict exposure and associated consequences, and mitigation through exposure prevention and/or civil defense,” Boslow added.
Larger NEOs from the Taurid stream
For this study, Boslow and his research team analyzed data on the Taurid shower and found an increased risk of airbursts. NEO. These NEOs, about the size of an airburst, are small enough to explode in the atmosphere without hitting the ground like the Chelyabinsk meteor.
The team also noted that they investigated the possibility of the existence of the Taurid Resonant Swarm (TRS).
“The resonant swarm is theoretical, but there is some evidence that there is a rare swarm of small objects, as bright fireballs and seismic signatures of impacts on the Moon have been observed from time to time, as the theory predicted,” Boslow said.
Although theoretical, the study suggests that the resonant swarm is likely caused by Jupiter's gravity, which pulls objects in the Taurid stream together during their orbits. If the theory is confirmed, the Taurid swarm could pass Earth in 2032 and 2036, increasing the risk of impact.
“Our conclusions are that we have the technology to test the Taurid resonant swarm using existing telescopes for targeted sky surveys in 2032 and 2036, when the hypothetical swarm will come very close,” Boslow said.
Catch the impact in time
If the 2032 and 2036 Taurid resonance swarm theory is correct, the objects should be large enough to be detected, although many of them will not be visible through a telescope until they fly past our planet, according to a press release.
“If we detect objects with enough warning time, then we can take action to reduce or eliminate the risk. If the new infrared telescope (NEO Surveyor) works, then potentially we will have much more warning time,” Boslow said.
Boslow does not intend to cause alarm; he just wants to help people become aware of the potential consequences in the future, just as people are aware of earthquakes and volcanoes.
“Asteroid impacts pose a small but significant risk, and New Mexico National Laboratories has some of the best minds working on this problem,” he said.
Read more: Simulation shows alarming consequences of an incoming asteroid exploding before it hits Earth
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