The NFL offseason has begun and Yahoo Sports is forecasting the coming months for all 32 teams, from free agency to the draft and more.
AFK East: Accounts | Dolphins | Patriots | Jets
AFK North: Crows | Bengals | Browns | Steelers
AFC South: Texans | Colts | Jaguars | Titans
AFK West: Broncos | Leaders | Raiders | Chargers
NFC East: Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Commanders
NFK North: Bears | Lions | Packers | Vikings
NFC South: Falcons | Panthers | Saints | pirates
NFC West: Cardinals | Rams | 49ers | Seahawks
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2025 season record: 8-9 (about 7.5 wins), third in NFC South, missed playoffs, 19th in DVOA
Review
The Falcons won the final game of the regular season and set a three-way record for first place in the NFC South. But Atlanta's victory sent Carolina to the playoffs, and the Falcons officially took third place in the division and head coach Raheem Morris and general manager Terry Fontenot were fired.
The problem with Atlanta the last two seasons has been a clear misjudgment of where the team is and how to build a roster around it. Signing Kirk Cousins ​​and then drafting Michael Penix Jr. could have left the Falcons 0-for-2 at quarterback. Penix, who has a lengthy injury history, tore his ACL in November. Trading a 2026 first-round draft pick for James Pierce Jr., who could have been a top-five Defensive Rookie of the Year, was short-sighted at the time and looks worse now. On top of that, there were just weird things going on with the Falcons. Wide receivers coach Ike Hilliard was fired midseason as a scapegoat for offensive struggles. Darnell Mooney broke his collarbone in training campwhich was not revealed publicly until November.
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A four-game winning streak was not enough to save the season. There were also no individual bright spots like Drake London and Bijan Robinson. Even the defense was impressive at times, but it was never enough to make the Falcons feel like they were a team with a coherent plan and path forward.
Prospects for restrictions/reductions
According to above the cap, The Falcons have an effective salary cap of about -$14 million through 2026, which ranks in the bottom 10 of the league. The Falcons and Kirk Cousins ​​have agreed to amend the quarterback's contract, moving his 2027 guarantee date to Day 3 of league play, so his future will be decided before that date. It's likely that Cousins ​​will be cut after June 1, which would only free up about $2 million in 2026. Darnell Mooney's release will bring another $8 million into the space.
To meet cap requirements, the Falcons have several restructuring options that could include AJ Terrell, Jesse Bates III, Chris Lindstrom and Jake Matthews.
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Waiting for free agents
TE Kyle Pitts
RB Tyler Allgaier
LB Kayden Ellis
OL Elijah Wilkinson
DL David Onyemata
Edge Arnold Abiketi
Edge Leonard Floyd
Pitts had a career year and led the team in targets and yards, although Drake London surpassed Pitts statistically but missed games. Pitts can count on the franchise tag considering the tight end is much lower than the wide receiver. But with the salary cap shrinking and a new deal with London looming, Pitts could be a luxury the new regime decides not to pay. Allgaier is in a similar situation: an effective running back in tandem with Bijan Robinson, but it's becoming increasingly difficult to have a second contracted running back sharing carries with arguably the best running back in the league.
Positional Needs
Defender
Cornerback
Wide Receiver
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If Kirk Cousins ​​isn't on the roster and Michael Penix Jr. isn't ready to start the season (or maybe he is), the Falcons need someone to play quarterback. Penix and Cousins ​​have had nearly identical efficiency numbers this season, but a lot of that has to do with the availability of Drake London. Penix had London on the field in nearly all of his reserves, while Cousins ​​had his top receiver in just over a third. In London, Cousins ​​had 0.04 EPA per game, compared to Penix's -0.02. Having a reliable secondary receiver would help whoever the quarterback is and London in 2026. The “stars and everyone else” group also appears in the supporting cast. The Falcons have some young cornerbacks and rookie Billy Bowman played well at the position before getting hurt, but having an outside corner opposite AJ Terrell could improve the defense.
2026 NFL Draft Picks
2nd round
3rd round
4th round
6th round
7th round
Good traction
Kelly Jones, CB, Mississippi State
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Jones is long, a good catcher, and a willing tackler, qualities that translate well as a CB2 against AJ Terrell. And the best news is that he will likely be available when the Falcons make their first pick on Day 2.
What could move fantasy forward in 2026?
Determine the Quarterback Position
Atlanta made two big bets on quarterback in the 2024 offseason, and heading into 2026, I don't think you can call either of them a hit. Maybe that guy will be Michael Penix Jr. However, I'd bet the new front office and coaching staff will hang their hat on that answer, given that the soon-to-be 26-year-old quarterback is still unproven and undergoing his third ACL reconstruction. I'm not entirely sure what the path forward is for this team, which is short of a first-round pick in the upcoming draft, but I doubt Penix or Kirk Cousins ​​will open the season as the starting quarterback. — Matt Harmon
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Nugget of bets
The Falcons narrowly missed the postseason, finishing 8–9 in a weak NFC South, but bettors were not rewarded for backing Atlanta in games the Falcons should have won. Atlanta started as a dismal 2-7 favorite. — Ben Fox
