2025’s Big 3 Elections – Final Analysis/Predictions Before Nov. 4 – RedState

Well, the big three (plus two) 2025 elections are about to end on November 4th and it's time for my challenging but definitely accurate model predictions about the results.

Governor of New Jersey

In New Jersey, Democratic Congressman Mikie Sherrill is facing off against former Republican lawmaker Jack Ciattarelli.

Average RCP value is With 48.9% to 45.6% in favor of Sherrill, a 3.3% advantage compared to the previous gap of 4.1%. It's important to note that several particularly good polls, including Atlas, Quantus, Trafalgar and others, show the race at one to two.

We also know the following:

1. Mikey Sherrill is bad candidate.
2. Basics seem in favor of Jack Ciattarelli.
3. Two respected sociologists think The race is “fast approaching” in Ciattarelli's favor.
4. Democratic Governor Phil Murphy is often Polls are worse than President Trump, especially in the best polls.
5. Because the race is being fought at the state level rather than the federal level, Democrats' advantage in the state will be muted.
6. Republican Party is obtaining registration.
7. As the “outsider” party in the state, the GOP must win a majority or plurality of the remaining undecided voters, with many other voters simply not voting.
8. Cheryl spent $16.6 million and $4.1 million left, and Ciattarelli spent $16.4 million and left $3.5 million. Meanwhile, various parties and independent allies are pouring another $70-plus million into the race, and “panicked” Democratic allies giving Sherrill a lead of $42.4 million to $29.9 million. Overall, Democrats have an advantage, but it doesn't look decisive.
9. Every eight years since 1993, Republicans have narrowly won a seat over a Democratic incumbent, or Democrats have won a seat by a large margin over a Republican incumbent. The poll certainly shows a close fight.

That's why, put all these variables into my factory-sized, incredibly complex, math-heavy, scientific model that dwarfs all other models, and which is painstakingly maintained by the newly updated and improved Robbie the robot, I predict Jack Ciattarelli will win by a narrow margin, quite possibly by a majority.

Don't be surprised; It's not like I haven't telegraphed this prediction before.

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READ MORE: Trump is doing what Biden never did: investing in Virginia and New Jersey

GOP Nom Ciattarelli warms up with Trump's live speech as the famous New Jersey native cuts an ad

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Mayor of New York

In New York, the race is between the Communist Radical Muslim (CRM) and the child Democrat, Zoran Mamdani, the dishonest and sexually harassing ex-Democratic governor, now an independent, the non-polite son of Andrew Cuomo, and Curtis Sliwa, the eccentric Republican. While in a perfect world I would pick Plum, I really don't believe he can win this year. If I were a voter there, I would hold my nose and vote for Cuomo.

Average RCP value has CRM grew 45.4% to 30.9% for Crook, with Sliwa trailing at 17.4%. Atlas, a good pollster, has a shockingly low lead over CRM: just 41 percent to Crook's 34 percent, and Sliwa a strong 24 percent.

We also know the following:

1. CRM is the dream of an opposition researcher who once muttered something about “capture means of production”, showing persistent love for Muslim terrorists, and also consistently demonstration hatred of Jews, of whom there are quite a lot in the city. But he is also young, handsome and has a very friendly demeanor.
2. Despite CRM's terrible record, those who oppose the Democrat should use paid media to expose that Democrat. MSM won't help. Neither Rogue nor Plum was is able to do this particularly effectively.
3. Scammer ran terrible races, both for the Democratic primaries and now for the generals. This is an angry old man who is a lazy and overrated campaigner who, despite needing to support conservatives/Republicans, couldn't be bothered to give the GOP even verbal support.
4. Plum, as a Republican, likely doesn't have the support to win. The moderate voters who empowered Rudy and even Bloomberg are either dead or in Florida. And Plum too has not having a good race.
5. Today the city is overwhelmingly democratic, full of Karens and foreign-born voters. Voters open to moderation, as I said, have died or moved to Florida.
6. The city has a public funding system. In this CRM race was raise dollars faster.
7. How it was reported According to one of my RedState colleagues, the CRM campaign is facing high-profile allegations that it benefited from tens of millions of dollars in donations received from charities linked to George Soros that may have violated tax laws. ( James Bond villain and his Mini-Me are back!)
8. Billionaires are late filling $40 million in advertising against CRM and in defense of the Fraudster.
9. Urban voters were they're pushing for early voting, with voting totals five times higher than four years ago, with many boomers and Gen Xers among them. The larger and older the turnout, the worse for CRM.

So putting all these variables together in my model and taking into account my previous mistake – but was it really there? – Unfortunately, I expect that CRM will not win the primaries CRM will win overall, probably with a majority of votes and a much smaller margin (according to some polls).

However, there is some good news. CRM will certainly be a great boost for the Republican Party in the 2026 elections (and beyond). Plus, the Governor of New York can always remove CRM after he destroys Gotham, and Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is about to run a very competitive campaign for Governor.

Races throughout Virginia

In Virginia, former Democratic congresswoman Abigail Spanberger faces GOP Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl-Sears for governor.

Average RCP value has Spanberger rose 50.7% to 43.1%, essentially unchanged from the last time we checked. Spanberger is over 50 percent, which is not a good sign.

We also know the following:

1. Abigail Spanberger is not the best candidate, but charming Earl-Sears was was also criticized.
2. Virginia became a Democratic-leaning state thanks to the growth of the federal government. However, government campaigns may be a different matter altogether (see above).
3. Previous Virginia history shows that the incumbent's party (almost) always loses off-year gubernatorial elections, with the exception of 2013, when Democrats significantly outspended the GOP and played race, supporting independence-leaning conservatives.
4. For most of the election campaign, Democrats were vastly superior to the Republican Party.
5. However, “(according to According to ad tracking firm AdImpact, the Earl-Sears campaign will now significantly outspend Spanberger on the airwaves in the campaign's final stretch…The Republican Governors Association's Right Direction PAC also contributed $4 million to the Earl-Sears campaign on Oct. 28.”
6. The latest Earle-Sears ad communications Spanberger to his colleague on the Attorney General ticket, who was rocked by scandals (see below).
7. I think it would be an exaggeration to believe that scandals with fellow ticket holders will significantly affect the gubernatorial race.
8. If any state backlashes against the GOP for shutting down the government, that state will be Virginia, which has a large number of federal government workers.
9. Spanberger Campaign has her canvassing in rural, GOP-heavy areas, which is usually a sign of trust.

Surprisingly, in the race for lieutenant governor, virtually unfunded Republican John Reed was only narrowly behind Democrat Ghazala Hashmi, another CRM.

In the race for attorney general October surprises against Democrat Jay Jones, incumbent Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares installed the RCP poll puts him ahead of Jones 46.8% to 43.3%. Miyares leads on average in all 10 polls, although in some by closer margins.

So by combining all these variables in my model, I unfortunately expect that Spanberger will win the governorship by a landslide. However, I don't expect double-digit returns. Ghazala Hashmi to win by lesser margin position of vice governor. And Jason Miyares will narrowly win a second term as attorney general.

Now get out and vote (if you're in these areas).

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